Ecolab (ECL)
NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$283.15-0.20%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $283.15. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $283 the market pays 37× p/e — above the 23× p/e peer median but in line with its own 37× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $216 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $275–$345. Note: our $216 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($275–$345). Even the durable-growth case — current growth held at sustainable margins — values it at about $276, at or below today's price, so you're paying beyond even the growth case. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $309.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $253.72 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $246.33 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $49.69 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$275.00 – $345.00 (median $309.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-10
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 131% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 16.2 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.13/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $78.47 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $193.69 | 22.7 | 8.53 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $148.49 | 22.5 | 6.59 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $189.45 | 22.7 | 8.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $83.43 | 1.4 | 57.99 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $162.52 | 19.5 | 8.34 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $54.71 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $305.22 | 36.6 | 8.34 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $177.46 | 22.7 | 7.82 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $297.52 | 22.7 | 13.10 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $225.83 | 22.5 | 10.03 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $251.69 | 22.7 | 11.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $110.92 | 1.4 | 77.10 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $215.92 | 19.5 | 11.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $405.50 | 36.6 | 11.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $396.07 | 22.7 | 17.44 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $298.66 | 22.5 | 13.26 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $303.08 | 22.7 | 13.35 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $133.56 | 1.4 | 92.84 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $260.00 | 19.5 | 13.35 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $488.28 | 36.6 | 13.35 | Analyst | high |