Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
EastGroup Properties (EGP)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$193.86-3.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.84 → 5.73 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EGP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dividend per share grows to at least $1.55 | Dividends grew from $1.4 to $1.55 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $1.55 | Dividend per share: $1.75 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.55 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 21, 20261.75 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EGP is a real estate growth and income story, with development in high-growth markets and dividends as key parts of the case. The long-term thesis is intact, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable after an earnings beat, though confidence is medium.
The valuation is stretched and stands at a 1.63 premium versus peers, with a 15% expectations gap and a possible re-rating as the stated divergence driver. Fragility is low, but the premium leaves less room for disappointment if execution weakens.
Near term, results have been holding in the top half of the industry, and the latest event was an earnings beat; however, the evidence also notes a history of deep and repeated misses. In 2026-Q3, same-property NOI grew 5.3% year over year on a straight-line basis, and management started 998,000 square feet of projects, while the dividend increase shows delivery on a stated priority.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining operating growth and avoiding guidance cuts. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while cracks in sector peers could remove a helpful sector backdrop; the evidence does not establish when either scenario will occur.
For the 1-to-3-year view, EGP’s operating and development story remains intact, but its stretched valuation makes continued execution important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in EastGroup Properties's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.66 USD per share. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $5.66 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.46 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5.66 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 21, 20261.46 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
FFO reaches at least $9.46 in 2026 | A primary condition in EastGroup Properties's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.46 USD per share. | Intact | FFO falls below $9.46 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.79 → $5.73 · observed estimates
$0.85B → $0.86B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.79 | $851,140,288 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.52 | $850,399,110 | 6 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.79 | $851,998,534 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.52 | $850,290,700 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.79 | $851,998,534 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.51 | $850,326,450 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.51 | $850,326,450 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.51 | $850,326,450 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.78 | $852,213,919 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.51 | $850,326,450 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.55 | $850,617,710 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.81 | $852,616,619 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.81 | $852,616,619 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.81 | $852,616,619 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.79 | $851,298,004 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.55 | $850,617,710 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.55 | $850,617,710 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.55 | $850,617,710 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.79 | $851,298,004 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.79 | $851,298,004 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.55 | $850,617,710 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.79 | $851,298,004 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.79 | $851,298,004 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.79 | $851,298,004 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.79 | $851,298,004 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.79 | $851,298,004 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.79 | $851,298,004 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.83 | $852,016,075 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.84 | $852,665,096 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.84 | $854,131,874 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.73 | $854,255,923 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.73 | $855,180,457 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.73 | $855,180,457 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.75 | $858,207,123 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.75 | $858,207,123 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.75 | $858,207,123 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.75 | $858,207,123 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.72 | $860,093,305 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.72 | $860,916,154 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.72 | $860,916,154 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.73 | $862,449,487 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.73 | $863,760,154 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.73 | $863,760,154 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.73 | $863,760,154 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.73 | $864,213,487 | 7 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.