Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Erie Indemnity (ERIE)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$285.63+2.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.80 → 13.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ERIE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities recovers above $200 million | A primary condition in Erie Indemnity's published investment case. The stated target is >=$200 million. | Broken | Cash from operations remains below $200 million over the next year | Cash from operations: $213.405M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=$200 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 2026213,405,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ERIE is a financial-sector business with a recovery story, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent results support improvement, while the evidence on execution and earnings quality remains mixed.
The valuation evidence flags ERIE as expensive, with an elevated fragility assessment and an expectations gap that suggests the market may be asking for strong execution. The snapshot does not provide peer valuation comparisons, so how expensive ERIE is versus peers cannot be assessed.
Near term, recent earnings beats and higher nine-month operating income support the recovery, though third-quarter operating income was slightly lower year over year and the record notes past earnings misses. Management has repeatedly stated a goal of increasing operating income, but evidence for cash-flow and dividend priorities is limited; a guidance cut or lower rates would add risk.
The multi-year thesis hinges on sustained operating-income growth and more consistent execution. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum; lower interest rates are a separate risk.
Over the next one to three years, ERIE’s recovery has recent support, but its expensive valuation makes continued execution important and the evidence remains mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Quarterly dividend remains at or above $1.46 per share |
| It keeps profit margins stable and pays steady dividends near $1.46 per share quarterly. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share falls below $1.46 quarterly |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income grows at least 10% year over year | Erie Indemnity grows operating income about 10% year over year. | Broken | Operating income growth falls below 10% YoY over the next year | Operating income: $207.382M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY growth. Target and observation units differ. Oct 29, 2026207,382,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$12.70 → $13.33 · observed estimates
$4.61B → $4.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — / 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $12.70 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.80 | $4,612,621,254 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.33 | $4,136,613,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.33 | $4,136,613,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.33 | $4,136,613,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.33 | $4,136,613,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.33 | $4,136,613,999 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.