Erie Indemnity (ERIE)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$285.63+2.03%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ERIE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 78.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 78.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ERIE — CEO transition
Dated 2026-11-03
CEO — Timothy G. NeCastro: The CEO retired with an accelerated date for personal reasons, but an interim successor was immediately appointed, indicating an orderly transition rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Policy fees rose 2.6% in Q3, below the 3.8% nine-month pace. This tests whether premium growth is holding up.
Supportive ifQ4 policy issuance and renewal fee revenue grows more than 2.6% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 policy issuance and renewal fee revenue grows 2.6% or less year over year.
Why it matters: ERIE lists social inflation and changing claims as risks. A rising CPI reading may add to cost pressure, though it does not prove claims costs rose.
Watch forThe Nov. 10 CPI report shows a higher year-over-year rate than the prior report.
Also watch forThe Nov. 10 CPI report shows a lower year-over-year rate than the prior report.
Why it matters: Operating income was slightly lower in Q3, but it rose over the first nine months. A return to growth would show the full-year trend held.
Supportive ifQ4 operating income is higher than Q4 2025.
Worry ifQ4 operating income is flat or lower than Q4 2025.
Why it matters: Net investment income rose in Q3, but realized and unrealized results swung to losses. A further loss would weigh on investment income.
Worry ifQ4 investment results, both realized and unrealized, show a loss. This follows Q3's $5.4 million loss.
Less concerning ifQ4 net realized and unrealized investment results are a gain or break even.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$177 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $373 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,011 loss on $10,000 · 30.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.