Erie Indemnity (ERIE)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$252.80-2.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ERIE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 57.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 48.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
ERIE — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-30
Other Events. At its meeting on July 28, 2026, the Company's Board of Directors approved the following quarterly dividend on shares of Erie Indemnity Company Class A common stock: Dividend Number: 385 Class A Rate Per Share: $1.4625 Declaration Date: July 28, 2026 Ex-Dividend Date: October 5, 2026 Record Date: October 5, 2026 Payable Date: October 20, 2026
Why it matters: A high payout ratio may limit future growth and investment. This is key for assessing financial health.
Worry ifThe dividend payout ratio is below 50% for the next few quarters.
Less concerning ifThe dividend payout ratio is over 50%. This may put pressure on cash flow.
Why it matters: Consistent dividends build trust with investors. They also show the company's financial strength. This aligns with what management wants.
Watch forThe company announces a dividend payout that matches past quarters.
Also watch forThe company cuts the dividend payout compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in management fee revenue shows strong demand for services and good operations. It shows the company can take advantage of market chances.
Supportive ifManagement fee revenue grows more than 4% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifManagement fee revenue growth is less than 4% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows the company is healthy. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase from $1.4625 in Q1 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A clear plan for leadership can help the company. It can also reassure investors.
Watch forA successor for Tim NeCastro will be announced before he retires at the end of 2026.
Also watch forNo one has been named to replace Tim NeCastro. He will retire at the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Operating income is important for checking how much money the company makes. A drop could worry investors.
Worry ifQ2 operating income is lower than in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifQ2 operating income is higher or the same as in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: More investment income helps overall profits. It shows good asset management and market conditions.
Supportive ifInvestment income in Q3 exceeds $22 million.
Worry ifInvestment income in Q3 is less than $22 million.
Why it matters: A clear plan for leadership changes is important for stability. It can affect how investors feel.
Watch forThe company announces a successor for the CEO position before the end of 2026.
Also watch forNo announcement of a successor is made by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Improving cash from operations is key for growth. It also helps keep the company healthy.
Worry ifQ2 cash from operations shows improvement from $91.9 million in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifQ2 cash from operations declines further from $91.9 million in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A slowdown in operating income growth could signal weakening performance trends. This is key for investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 operating income growth year over year is less than 2.5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating income growth year over year is greater than or equal to 2.5%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability. It also shows commitment to shareholders. A change could cause worries.
Watch forThe Board declares a quarterly dividend of $1.4625 per share for Q3.
Also watch forThe Board changes or suspends the dividend payout for Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $411 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,786 loss on $10,000 · 37.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.