Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$68.60-1.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.76 → 7.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ESNT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash from operating activities near $192 million | A primary condition in Essent Group Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $190 million. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $190 million | Cash from operations: $197.09M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $190 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 2026197,090,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ESNT is a financially established business with a capital-return focus, rather than a high-growth or turnaround story. Its long-term thesis is on watch: recent earnings beats are encouraging, but performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence says ESNT is cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations are below the model’s estimate of what fundamentals support. The valuation measure rose recently, but the snapshot labels pricing as justified and shows low fragility, so it does not indicate an unusually fragile setup.
Near term, steady operating cash flow, a rising dividend, and recent share repurchases support capital returns; earnings were positive in the last two reported events, after a miss in late 2025. Still, recent performance is below peers, and the risk evidence notes peer misses and a prior deep miss, so execution and guidance remain important.
A guidance cut on the next call would weaken the thesis, while rate cuts from the current level could weigh on ESNT and other Financials names. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop; the dividend and cash-flow priorities also need to remain on track.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis balances consistent cash generation and growing capital returns against below-peer performance and sensitivity to rates and guidance. The evidence supports a watch state, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Increase dividend per share to at least $0.35 per quarter |
| It raised dividends from $0.31 to $0.35 per share recently. |
| Intact |
| Dividend per share fails to reach $0.35 by 2026-Q1 |
Dividend per share: $0.35 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.35 per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.35 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain about 10% annual revenue growth | A primary condition in Essent Group Ltd.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=9.7% YoY. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below ~9.7% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Repurchase common shares worth at least $214 million | The company repurchased $214 million in shares last quarter. | Intact | Repurchases fall significantly below $214 million in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.52 → $7.78 · observed estimates
$1.37B → $1.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.67 | $1,463,667,670 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.67 | $1,463,667,670 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.67 | $1,463,667,670 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.67 | $1,463,667,670 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.67 | $1,463,667,670 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.67 | $1,463,667,670 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.67 | $1,463,667,670 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.67 | $1,463,667,670 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.67 | $1,463,667,670 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.75 | $1,485,363,330 | 6 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.77 | $1,405,863,750 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.77 | $1,405,863,750 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.52 | $1,365,175,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.72 | $1,405,863,750 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.76 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.77 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.77 | $1,416,891,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.83 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.83 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.83 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.83 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.83 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.79 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.79 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.79 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.79 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.79 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.79 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.79 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.78 | $1,424,951,000 | 6 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.