Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$68.60-1.07%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESNT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 6 industry peers
ESNT — earnings miss
Dated 2025-11-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 7, 2025 , Essent Group Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this report, including Exhibit 99.1, has been “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise s…
Why it matters: Loss costs rose from $17.1 million in Q2 2025 to $49.0 million in Q2 2026. A lower result would ease concern about that rise.
Watch forQ3 provision for losses and LAE is below $48.2 million, the Q1 2026 level.
Also watch forQ3 provision for losses and LAE is above $49.0 million, the Q2 2026 level.
Why it matters: Insurance in force rose to $249.7 billion in Q2. More growth can support future premium income.
Supportive ifQ3 insurance in force is above $249.7 billion, the June 30, 2026 level.
Worry ifQ3 insurance in force falls below $247.9 billion, the March 31, 2026 level.
Why it matters: Management lists dividend growth as a priority. The dividend stayed at $0.35 in Q1 and Q2 2026.
Supportive ifEssent declares a quarterly dividend of more than $0.35 per share.
Worry ifEssent cuts the quarterly dividend below $0.35 per share.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $205 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,683 loss on $10,000 · 16.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.