Essent Group Ltd. (ESNT)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$69.18-0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ESNT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 16.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ESNT — earnings miss
Dated 2025-11-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 7, 2025 , Essent Group Ltd. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this report, including Exhibit 99.1, has been “furnished” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise s…
Why it matters: A higher number would show strong demand for mortgage insurance and support growth.
Supportive ifQ3 mortgage new insurance written exceeds $14.1 billion.
Worry ifQ3 mortgage new insurance written falls below $12.5 billion.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow helps manage money. It also allows for higher dividends.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities returns to at least $221.6 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operations drops below $192.0 million in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows strong cash flow. It also shows management cares about value.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend increases beyond $0.35 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe quarterly dividend is $0.35 or less.
Why it matters: A higher provision would signal increased risk in the mortgage market.
Worry ifQ3 provision for losses and LAE exceeds $48.9 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 provision for losses and LAE falls below $48.2 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $205 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,593 loss on $10,000 · 15.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More repurchases show strong capital management. It also shows confidence in the stock.
Supportive ifShare buybacks were over $200 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifShare buybacks are under $200 million.
Why it matters: A rise in new insurance written would indicate strong demand for mortgage insurance. This could signal positive growth for the company.
Supportive ifNew insurance written in Q3 exceeds $15 billion.
Worry ifNew insurance written in Q3 is under $14 billion. This suggests demand is weakening.
Why it matters: This report will show how the company is doing and what the market looks like.
Watch forEarnings report shows improved metrics compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a decline in key financial metrics.
Why it matters: More net investment income means better capital management. It also shows smart investment choices.
Supportive ifQ3 net investment income exceeds $61.6 million.
Worry ifQ3 net investment income falls below $59.3 million.
Why it matters: An increase shows that management wants to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.35 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend from the current $0.35 per share.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show less profit. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 2026 is below $154.9 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q3 2026 is above $171.8 million.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show faith in the company’s worth. This can help the share price.
Supportive ifEssent repurchases more than 5.8 million shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases or a decrease in shares repurchased from Q2 2026.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth slows, it could hurt Essent's performance. This is key for understanding the market conditions.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median of around 12%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above its median.