Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Eagle Materials (EXP)
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$198.19+2.82%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
13.88 → 12.79 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EXP yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS near $3.76 next quarter | Profit margins remain stable with an EPS target of $3.76 next quarter. | Intact | EPS falls below $3.76 next quarter | Diluted EPS: $3.63 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.76 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20263.63 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
EXP is a materials business with a sector tailwind and ongoing plant modernization, rather than a clear turnaround or a proven earnings compounder. The thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial history to assess it, and confidence has fallen from medium to low.
The valuation evidence labels EXP cheap versus peers, while the priced-in tag is stretched. That suggests a gap between its relative valuation and the expectations reflected in the market, but the evidence does not explain the gap; fragility is assessed as low.
Over the next few years, plant upgrades may support operations: management reports progress at Laramie and Duke, with commissioning expected in late 2026 and the second half of 2027. Recent fiscal 2026 results showed record revenue and higher cement volume, but net earnings fell 9% amid cost pressures and market softness. Near term, recent earnings beats are balanced by a most-recent-quarter miss and a prior deep miss; estimated miss risk is low.
The main execution test is whether plant modernization stays on schedule and improves earnings, not just revenue and volume. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from CRH, VMC, and MLM would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, EXP's long-term thesis depends on turning modernization and sector support into stronger net income despite cost and market pressures. The evidence is mixed and confidence is low. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Eagle Materials's published investment case. The stated target is Net income stabilizes or grows from $60.2 million in Q4 FY26. |
| Under Pressure |
| Net income declines further below $60 million |
Net income: $111.531M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net income stabilizes or grows from $60.2 million in Q4 FY26. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026111,531,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Progress on modernizing Laramie and Duke plants | A supporting condition in Eagle Materials's published investment case. The stated target is Significant progress with >66% progress score. | Intact | Modernization progress stalls below 50% progress score | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are approximately 60% complete with the Mountain Cement plant modernization and expect commissioning of the new kiln line to begin in late calendar 2026.” “Construction on the Duke, Oklahoma wallboard plant modernization started in the fall of 2025, and we expect to commission the new wallboard line in the second half of calendar 2027.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth near 3.7% next fiscal year | Revenue growth is expected near 3.7% next year. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3.7% in FY27 | Revenue growth: 0% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=3.7% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$14.67 → $12.79 · observed estimates
$2.45B → $2.38B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $14.67 | $2,453,603,539 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $14.51 | $2,447,888,030 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $14.67 | $2,453,603,539 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $14.51 | $2,447,888,030 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $14.67 | $2,453,603,539 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $14.61 | $2,447,887,983 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $14.51 | $2,447,888,030 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $14.18 | $2,442,134,250 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $14.46 | $2,462,489,805 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $14.23 | $2,462,600,920 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $14.40 | $2,462,600,917 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $14.23 | $2,462,600,920 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $14.23 | $2,462,600,920 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $14.23 | $2,462,600,920 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $14.40 | $2,462,600,917 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $14.23 | $2,462,600,920 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $14.23 | $2,462,600,920 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $14.23 | $2,462,600,920 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-11 | $14.40 | $2,462,600,917 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $14.18 | $2,462,563,290 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $14.40 | $2,462,600,917 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $14.40 | $2,462,600,917 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $14.40 | $2,462,600,917 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $14.40 | $2,462,600,917 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $14.40 | $2,462,600,917 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $14.40 | $2,462,600,917 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $14.40 | $2,462,600,917 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $14.35 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $14.35 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $14.35 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $14.35 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $14.35 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $14.35 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $14.30 | $2,462,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $14.15 | $2,443,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $14.15 | $2,443,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $14.15 | $2,443,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $14.15 | $2,443,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $14.15 | $2,443,563,287 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $14.15 | $2,443,635,228 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $14.15 | $2,443,635,228 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $14.15 | $2,443,633,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $14.10 | $2,443,464,407 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $14.10 | $2,443,464,407 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $13.88 | $2,432,013,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $13.88 | $2,432,013,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.76 | $2,429,313,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.76 | $2,429,313,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.76 | $2,429,313,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.58 | $2,416,313,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $13.42 | $2,407,083,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $13.42 | $2,407,083,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $13.42 | $2,407,083,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $13.42 | $2,407,083,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $13.42 | $2,407,083,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $13.42 | $2,407,083,207 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $13.22 | $2,398,415,142 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $13.22 | $2,398,415,142 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $13.16 | $2,392,386,872 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $13.16 | $2,392,386,872 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $13.16 | $2,392,386,872 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.99 | $2,387,076,872 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.99 | $2,387,076,872 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.99 | $2,387,076,872 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.99 | $2,387,076,872 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.99 | $2,387,076,872 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.99 | $2,387,076,872 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.99 | $2,387,076,872 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.79 | $2,384,889,672 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.79 | $2,384,889,672 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.79 | $2,384,889,672 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.79 | $2,384,889,672 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.79 | $2,384,889,672 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.79 | $2,384,889,672 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.79 | $2,384,889,672 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.79 | $2,384,889,672 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.