Eagle Materials (EXP)
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$194.48+0.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEMaterialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
EXP — CEO transition
Dated 2026-05-21
Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller — William R. Devlin: William R. Devlin is retiring and Samuel M. Guzman Jr. will succeed him.
Why it matters: If the materials sector shows positive revenue growth, it could lift Eagle's performance. This is a key trend.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth reported above 0% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: Stable net income shows stronger financial health in tough times.
Watch forNet income growth stabilizes or increases in the next quarter.
Also watch forNet income keeps going down. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: A larger decline in net earnings would signal deeper cost pressures and market issues.
Worry ifNet earnings decline worse than -17% in Q2 results.
Less concerning ifNet earnings decline less than -17% or show improvement.
Why it matters: A higher leverage ratio may show financial trouble. This could hurt growth plans.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio exceeds 2.1x in future reports.
Less concerning ifNet leverage ratio stays below or improves from 2.1x.
Why it matters: Changes in PPI can impact input costs and pricing power for construction materials.
Watch forPPI shows an increase greater than 0.5%, indicating rising input costs.
Also watch forPPI shows a decrease or increase less than 0.2%, indicating stable or falling costs.
Why it matters: Revenue growth may mean the materials sector is recovering.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is up year over year. This shows the sector is recovering.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is down year over year. This shows the sector is still declining.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and results. Watch for signs of stability.
Watch forNew CEO outlines a clear strategy and vision within the next quarter.
Also watch forLeadership is uncertain with no clear path from the new CEO.
Why it matters: Modernization will boost production and cut costs. This will help the company compete better.
Supportive ifMountain Cement will complete its upgrades by late 2026.
Worry ifDelays in upgrades or missed deadlines could cause issues.
Why it matters: A continued drop in cash flow shows trouble in managing operations. This could hurt future investments.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $78 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations is stable or above $78 million.
Why it matters: Higher net income growth shows better cost management. It also reflects good market conditions.
Supportive ifNet income shows an increase of more than 5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet income continues to decline or remains flat year over year.
Why it matters: Updates will show progress on cutting costs and boosting production.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the commissioning of the new kiln line at the Laramie plant in late 2026.
Worry ifDelays in the upgrades or no news on progress.
Why it matters: Wallboard sales affect total revenue. A drop shows weakness in home building.
Worry ifGypsum wallboard sales volume decreases year over year by more than 5%.
Less concerning ifGypsum wallboard sales go up or stay steady year over year.
Why it matters: Net earnings trends will show if Eagle can overcome recent declines and achieve growth. This is critical for investor confidence.
Watch forNet earnings rise compared to Q1 2026, showing recovery.
Also watch forNet earnings drop again, showing ongoing profit challenges.
Why it matters: A drop in net income would signal ongoing challenges in achieving profit growth. Investors may react negatively.
Worry ifQ2 net income is below $60 million. This shows profit challenges continue.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income is above $70 million. This shows profit is recovering.
Why it matters: More cash flow will help Eagle grow and manage its money better.
Supportive ifOperating cash flow is up compared to last quarter.
Worry ifOperating cash flow is down or stays the same. This may show financial issues.
Why it matters: Finishing this project will make the facility more reliable. It will also perform better.
Supportive ifManagement says the Mountain Cement upgrades are complete. They are now working well.
Worry ifDelays in the Mountain Cement upgrades will push the finish date past late 2026.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth in the sector may mean recovery and higher demand for Eagle's products.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 1% in the next quarter.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 1% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Finishing this project is important. It will help the plant run better.
Supportive ifCommissioning of the new kiln line at Mountain Cement begins in late calendar 2026.
Worry ifDelays in the project will push back the start date.
Why it matters: More spending will help demand for Eagle's heavy construction products.
Supportive ifGovernment reports show public infrastructure spending goes up each year.
Worry ifGovernment reports show public infrastructure spending goes down each year.
Why it matters: Changes in net debt will show how much money is available for growth.
Watch forNet debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio is better when it is below 1.8x.
Also watch forNet debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio worsens above 1.9x.
Why it matters: Cement sales are growing. This shows strong demand in construction and helps revenue.
Supportive ifCement sales volume increases by more than 8% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifCement sales volume growth falls below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$157 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $317 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,831 loss on $10,000 · 28.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.