Expedia Group (EXPE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$298.04-1.68%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXPE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 7.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EXPE — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-05
Other Events. Expedia Group's Executive Committee, acting on behalf of its Board of Directors, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.48 per share of outstanding common stock payable on September 17, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 27, 2026.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management believes in the company. They also return cash to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare buybacks announced for at least $200 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchase announcements in Q3.
Why it matters: A higher margin means better efficiency and profit. This builds investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is more than 1.5 points.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is less than 1.0 point.
Why it matters: Lower growth would indicate a slowdown in demand and could impact future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 gross bookings growth reported below 5%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross bookings growth reported at 7% or higher.
Why it matters: Better margins help the management plan. This could make investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin expands by more than 1.5 percentage points in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin expands by less than 1 percentage point in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,744 loss on $10,000 · 37.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: AI is a new focus for innovation. Success could enhance growth and efficiency.
Supportive ifManagement sees clear gains in efficiency or revenue from AI projects.
Worry ifNo clear gains reported from AI projects.
Why it matters: AI innovations can help customers and make things work better. This helps company growth.
Supportive ifThey announced new AI product features or projects.
Worry ifThere are no updates on AI innovations or delays in projects.
Why it matters: Derek Andersen's plans may affect future profits and how well the company runs.
Watch forGood financial results or new plans from the new CFO in six months.
Also watch forNo clear changes or ongoing poor performance in financial numbers.
Why it matters: Good results from AI projects could improve efficiency and boost revenue. This supports the long-term plan.
Watch forRevenue growth from AI projects is above 10%.
Also watch forRevenue growth from AI projects is below 5%.