Expedia Group (EXPE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$272.48-13.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · EXPE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 9.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
EXPE — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-04
Other Events. Expedia Group's Executive Committee, acting on behalf of its Board of Directors, declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.48 per share of outstanding common stock payable on December 10, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on November 18, 2026.
Why it matters: Expedia has raised its quarterly dividend and paid $0.48 per share. A change would mark a shift in its stated cash return pattern.
Watch forExpedia sets a dividend above $0.48 per share.
Also watch forExpedia cuts or skips its quarterly dividend below $0.48 per share.
Why it matters: B2B bookings grew 21% in Q2 and have driven much of Expedia's growth. A sharp slowdown would weaken that source of growth.
Worry ifReported B2B gross bookings growth falls below 15% year over year in Q3 or Q4.
Less concerning ifB2B gross bookings growth stays at or above 15% year over year in both Q3 and Q4.
Why it matters: Expedia raised its 2026 margin expansion goal to 1.5–1.75 points. A weaker Q3 result could put that goal at risk.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA margin growth leaves full-year growth below 1.5 points.
Less concerning ifQ3 results keep full-year adjusted EBITDA margin expansion on track for at least 1.5 points.
Why it matters: Q2 bookings grew 12%, and Expedia raised its full-year outlook. A Q3 miss would weaken that growth story.
Worry ifIn the November 4 results, Q3 gross bookings are below $32.2B, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross bookings reach or exceed $32.2B, the low end of guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$150 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $444 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,744 loss on $10,000 · 37.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.