Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Expedia Group (EXPE)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$272.48-13.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryTravel ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
24.53 → 24.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 22 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 22 to 22; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for EXPE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand adjusted EBITDA margin to about 15.8% in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in Expedia Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= 15.8%. | Improving | Margin falls below 12% in next four quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a travel-sector business with a growth-and-margin improvement thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or a proven durable compounder. The thesis is mildly favorable after recent earnings beats and progress on management’s priorities, but the current state remains watch.
The valuation signal is cheap versus peers, while the overall assessment says expectations are broadly justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is close to neutral, so the evidence does not point to a large mismatch between market assumptions and the business outlook.
Over the multi-year view, continued margin gains and booking growth are supported by recent results: adjusted EBITDA margin rose from 9.9% to 25.9%, and gross bookings increased 12% between the cited quarters. Near term, the miss risk is rated quiet, but risk remains elevated because the industry has a high miss rate and EXPE has had a deep miss in its recent history.
A key swing factor is whether EXPE sustains its recently raised guidance; a reversal and cut would also damage management credibility. Sector signals matter too: continued strong results from BKNG, ABNB, and RCL could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the long-term thesis rests on continued execution in margins and bookings, with sector conditions and guidance credibility as important risks. Recent progress is encouraging, but performance below the industry cohort warrants continued attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Looking ahead, we are committed to continuing to deliver margin expansion while growing our top-line," said Ariane Gorin, CEO of Expedia Group.” “Page 1 of 15 Business Outlook Metric Q1 2026 Full Year 2026 Gross bookings $34.6 - $35.2B +10 - 12% $127 - $129B +6 - 8% Revenue $3.32 - $3.37B +11 - 13% $15.6 - $16.0B +6 - 9% Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion** +3 - 4pts +1 - 1.25pts ** A reconciliation for the adjusted EBITDA margin expansion forecast is not provided because we cannot, without unreasonable effort, predict certain items, including but not limited to, foreign exchange rate gains or losses and minority investment gains or losses, and are unable to address the probable significance of the unavailable information.”
Grow gross bookings to at least $15.8 billion in FY26 | Expedia grew gross bookings 13% to $35.5 billion in Q1 2026. | Intact | Gross bookings fall below $15 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $4.315B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $15.8 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20264,315,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 6 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““We continue to deliver traveler value through more personalized and rewarding product experiences, improve supply across our marketplace, and advance our strategy to build the one-stop travel platform for B2B partners.” ““We exceeded the high end of our guidance in the quarter, driven by growth in our consumer brands, sustained B2B momentum, and disciplined execution,” said Ariane Gorin, CEO of Expedia Group.” Revenue was $4.315 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Repurchase at least $700 million in shares in Q1 2026 | The company bought back $700 million in shares. | Intact | Share buybacks drop below $500 million in next four quarters | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$22.96 → $24.70 · observed estimates
$17.15B → $17.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $22.96 | $17,150,519,300 | 29 / 34 |
| 2026-07-25 | $22.97 | $17,149,361,600 | 30 / 35 |
| 2026-07-26 | $23.06 | $17,147,156,691 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-07-27 | $22.97 | $17,149,361,600 | 30 / 35 |
| 2026-07-28 | $23.06 | $17,147,156,691 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-07-29 | $23.06 | $17,154,065,782 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-07-30 | $23.06 | $17,154,065,782 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-07-31 | $23.06 | $17,154,065,782 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-08-01 | $23.06 | $17,154,065,782 | 20 / 27 |
| 2026-08-02 | $22.91 | $17,144,637,960 | 30 / 35 |
| 2026-08-03 | $22.91 | $17,144,637,960 | 30 / 35 |
| 2026-08-04 | $22.91 | $17,144,637,960 | 30 / 35 |
| 2026-08-05 | $22.96 | $17,147,360,300 | 31 / 36 |
| 2026-08-06 | $22.96 | $17,147,360,300 | 31 / 36 |
| 2026-08-07 | $23.47 | $17,270,984,593 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-08 | $23.58 | $17,295,976,290 | 31 / 36 |
| 2026-08-09 | $23.47 | $17,270,984,593 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-10 | $23.58 | $17,295,976,290 | 31 / 36 |
| 2026-08-11 | $23.47 | $17,270,984,593 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-12 | $23.47 | $17,270,984,593 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-13 | $24.01 | $17,326,523,350 | 31 / 36 |
| 2026-08-14 | $23.47 | $17,270,984,593 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-15 | $23.47 | $17,270,984,593 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-16 | $23.47 | $17,270,984,593 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-17 | $23.47 | $17,270,984,593 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-18 | $23.47 | $17,270,984,593 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-19 | $23.47 | $17,270,984,593 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-20 | $24.03 | $17,341,119,338 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-21 | $24.10 | $17,349,269,906 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-22 | $24.16 | $17,351,265,034 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-23 | $24.16 | $17,368,448,942 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-24 | $24.16 | $17,368,448,942 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-25 | $24.16 | $17,368,448,942 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-26 | $24.16 | $17,368,462,597 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-27 | $24.16 | $17,368,462,597 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-28 | $24.16 | $17,368,462,597 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-29 | $24.16 | $17,368,462,597 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-30 | $24.16 | $17,368,462,592 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-31 | $24.16 | $17,368,462,592 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-09-01 | $24.16 | $17,368,462,592 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-09-02 | $24.16 | $17,364,657,946 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-09-03 | $24.37 | $17,364,657,946 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-09-04 | $24.46 | $17,364,657,946 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-05 | $24.46 | $17,364,657,946 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-06 | $24.46 | $17,364,657,946 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-07 | $24.46 | $17,364,666,400 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-08 | $24.46 | $17,364,666,400 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-09 | $24.46 | $17,364,666,400 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-10 | $24.46 | $17,364,666,400 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-11 | $24.46 | $17,364,666,406 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-12 | $24.44 | $17,363,370,117 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-13 | $24.44 | $17,363,370,117 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-14 | $24.44 | $17,363,370,117 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-15 | $24.44 | $17,375,372,412 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-16 | $24.44 | $17,375,372,412 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-17 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,740 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-18 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,740 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-19 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,740 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-09-20 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,740 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-21 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,740 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-22 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,740 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-23 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,740 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-24 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,740 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-25 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,740 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-26 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,740 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-27 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,740 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-28 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,440 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-29 | $24.47 | $17,366,016,440 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-09-30 | $24.48 | $17,366,016,440 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-10-01 | $24.53 | $17,373,359,297 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-10-02 | $24.53 | $17,373,359,297 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-10-03 | $24.53 | $17,373,359,297 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-10-04 | $24.53 | $17,373,359,306 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-10-05 | $24.53 | $17,373,359,306 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-10-06 | $24.53 | $17,373,359,306 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-07 | $24.55 | $17,377,201,420 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-08 | $24.55 | $17,370,601,420 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-09 | $24.54 | $17,368,716,877 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-10 | $24.56 | $17,367,607,600 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-11 | $24.56 | $17,367,607,600 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-12 | $24.56 | $17,367,607,600 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-13 | $24.56 | $17,363,749,145 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-14 | $24.68 | $17,363,751,081 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-15 | $24.68 | $17,363,751,081 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-16 | $24.68 | $17,363,751,081 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-17 | $24.68 | $17,363,751,081 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-18 | $24.68 | $17,363,751,081 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-19 | $24.68 | $17,361,608,742 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-20 | $24.69 | $17,360,740,878 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-21 | $24.69 | $17,358,182,054 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-22 | $24.70 | $17,358,520,290 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-23 | $24.70 | $17,358,520,290 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-24 | $24.70 | $17,358,520,290 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-10-25 | $24.70 | $17,358,520,290 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-10-26 | $24.70 | $17,358,520,290 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-10-27 | $24.73 | $17,362,137,937 | 22 / 28 |
| 2026-10-28 | $24.73 | $17,362,364,407 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-29 | $24.73 | $17,362,364,407 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-30 | $24.73 | $17,362,364,407 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-10-31 | $24.73 | $17,362,364,407 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-11-01 | $24.73 | $17,362,364,407 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-11-02 | $24.73 | $17,362,364,407 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-11-03 | $24.73 | $17,362,364,098 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-11-04 | $24.70 | $17,358,219,581 | 22 / 26 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 20 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.