Ford Motor Company (F)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.62+1.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · F
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
F — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-21
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant .
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program may show confidence in Ford's money situation.
Supportive ifFord announces more share buybacks beyond the current plan.
Worry ifFord suspends or reduces the share buyback program.
Why it matters: Cutting these costs would help Ford make more money and work better.
Supportive if$1 billion in material and warranty cost cuts confirmed for Q3.
Worry ifManagement states that cost reductions are not on track in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows Ford is making more money. It shows strong performance.
Supportive ifFord says adjusted EBIT guidance for 2026 is still between $10 billion and $11 billion.
Worry ifFord lowers adjusted EBIT guidance below $10 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: F-Series sales are key to Ford's revenue and market leadership. A rebound would show strong demand.
Supportive ifF-Series sales stabilize or grow year over year in Q2 2026.
Worry ifF-Series sales decline year over year in Q2 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$171 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $315 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,339 loss on $10,000 · 23.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More subscriptions show strong demand for Ford's digital services and steady revenue.
Supportive ifFord Pro software subscriptions grow to over 900,000 active subscriptions.
Worry ifFord Pro software subscriptions decline or stagnate below 865,000.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows Ford's strong cash flow and better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow reported at $7 billion or more.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow reported below $6 billion.
Why it matters: A recovery in vehicle sales shows strong demand and better operations. This can raise revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 vehicle sales increase by at least 5% compared to Q2.
Worry ifQ3 vehicle sales decline further compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending is important for Ford's growth and investment plans.
Watch forFord reports capital spending staying at or above current levels.
Also watch forCapital spending drops well below current levels.
Why it matters: Confirming the raised EBIT guidance shows Ford is making more money. This can help investors.
Supportive ifManagement confirms EBIT guidance of $10 billion to $11 billion for Q3.
Worry ifManagement lowers EBIT guidance to less than $10 billion for Q3.
Why it matters: Meeting the cash flow target would show Ford's financial health and efficiency.
Supportive ifFord reports adjusted free cash flow meeting or exceeding the target.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow falls short of the target.
Why it matters: If Novelis profits recover, it will help Ford's profits and cash flow.
Supportive ifFord reports a profit recovery from Novelis in Q3.
Worry ifNo profit recovery from Novelis means there are still challenges.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal helps Ford lower costs. It leads to better margins and more profit.
Supportive ifFord says it saved $1 billion in material and warranty costs in 2026.
Worry ifCost reductions fall short of $1 billion in 2026.