Ford Motor Company (F)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.62+1.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · F
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 F trades at 8.8× p/e, below its 15× p/e peer median. Our $20 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $14–$18. Note: our $20 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($14–$18). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $16.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $66.58 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $63.51 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $10.51 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
$14.50 – $17.50 (median $16.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-07-29
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 326% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.45/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
| $18.30 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $29.37 | 16.1 | 1.83 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $29.36 | 15.3 | 1.92 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $38.70 | 0.8 | 47.15 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $37.89 | 22.8 | 1.66 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $12.52 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $14.37 | 8.7 | 1.66 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $26.78 | 15.1 | 1.77 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $40.36 | 16.1 | 2.51 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $49.87 | 16.1 | 3.10 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |