Ford Motor Company (F)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-07-07
$13.56-1.92%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading F? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track F free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading F? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track F free→QuarterlyIQ Insights · F
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $13.56. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 F trades at 8.4× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $22 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits well above the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $14–$17. Note: our $22 fair value sits above the entire analyst range ($14–$17). Not investment advice.
$14.00 – $17.00 (median $15.25) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.48/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $15.25 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $101.25 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $13.01 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $18.26 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $7.88 | 13.9 | 3.03 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $45.70 | 19.5 | 2.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $37.30 | 23.2 | 1.61 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $97.25 | 2.1 | 46.64 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $61.88 | 38.4 | 1.61 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $12.46 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $13.82 | 8.6 | 1.61 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $37.95 | 23.2 | 1.64 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $69.51 | 19.5 | 3.57 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $91.93 | 19.5 | 4.72 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.