Ford Motor Company (F)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$14.62+1.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - ManufacturersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Ford aims to increase adjusted EBIT to $10.5 billion in 2026. Free cash flow should reach $6 billion this year. Capital spending will stay near $10.5 billion. The company beat EPS by 247% in Q1 2026 despite a guidance cut.
Ford faces many recalls that could hurt profit guidance. Hyundai is gaining U.S. market share, challenging Ford. Management is volatile and recent guidance was cut. The stock is down 22% from its high.
The price is about 37% below our fair value near $22. Analysts expect about 4% revenue decline next year. Our fair value is well above the Street median near $15.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBIT guidance falls below $8.5 billion in FY26
Ford aims to increase its adjusted EBIT guidance for the fiscal year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current thesis state indicates mixed signals, with recent financial performance being weak yet showing some positive momentum.
The market appears to price Ford as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap suggesting some negative sentiment. The valuation reflects a justified stance, indicating that investors may be cautious but not overly pessimistic.
Fundamentals are likely to show improvement in adjusted free cash flow, as management has committed to achieving targets. However, recent financial performance has been weak, which could pose risks in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to execute on their guidance and improve profitability. Additionally, external factors such as inflation trends and performance of sector leaders like Tesla and GM will be critical in shaping future outcomes.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company announced it will shift Lincoln production from China to the U.S. This move is driven by high tariffs on Chinese imports and regulatory restrictions. However, there is increased regulatory burden on Chinese imports, which raises costs for automakers.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures exceed $10.5 billion or fall below $9.5 billion in FY26
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $5.0 billion in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, Ford's performance will depend on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.