Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First American Financial Corporation (FAF)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$68.20+0.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.20 → 6.82 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FAF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow yield near 11% | The company keeps profit margins stable and delivers steady cash flow. | Intact | Free cash flow yield falls below 11% | Free cash flow yield: 11.54% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202611.54 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FAF is a value-oriented financial business with a currently cheap valuation versus peers, rather than a clear-cut durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, but momentum has weakened and earnings quality is fragile.
FAF is valued cheaply versus peers, and the evidence describes the valuation as justified, with low priced-in fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding, though valuation evidence has medium confidence.
Recent financial performance is strong, with higher Title Insurance and Services revenue, commercial revenue, and investment income in the latest year-over-year comparison. Commercial growth is tracking management’s stated priority, while AI deployment has not yet shown quantified results; a recent earnings miss and consecutive misses add near-term risk.
The thesis depends on whether strong business activity and commercial growth can persist while earnings execution improves. A guidance cut or rate cuts would be unfavorable, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FAF’s cheap valuation and recent operating strength support an intact long-term thesis, but weaker momentum, fragile earnings quality, and the latest miss leave execution as the main swing factor. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
EPS at least 6.8 USD in FY26 |
| Earnings per share are expected near 6.8 dollars this year. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below 6.8 USD in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.72 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6.8 USD_PER_SHARE. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 20261.72 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least 7.5 billion USD in FY26 | A primary condition in First American Financial Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.5 USD_BILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below 7.5 billion USD in FY26 | Revenue: $2.085B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7.5 USD_BILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 20262,084,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
PE ratio remains below peer median of 15.34 | It trades at a price-to-earnings ratio below peers, showing value. | Intact | PE ratio rises above 15.34 | P/E (TTM): 9.42x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20269.4248 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.23 → $6.82 · observed estimates
$8.49B → $8.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.23 | $8,487,800,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.44 | $8,487,800,530 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.44 | $8,487,800,530 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.45 | $8,604,500,660 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.23 | $8,507,600,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.40 | $8,518,240,529 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.40 | $8,518,240,529 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.40 | $8,518,240,529 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.40 | $8,518,240,529 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.40 | $8,518,240,529 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.40 | $8,518,240,529 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.40 | $8,518,240,529 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.40 | $8,518,240,529 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.40 | $8,518,240,529 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.22 | $8,518,240,528 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.22 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.20 | $8,509,769,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.19 | $8,489,729,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.19 | $8,489,729,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.19 | $8,489,729,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.19 | $8,489,729,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.19 | $8,489,729,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.19 | $8,489,729,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.13 | $8,489,729,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.13 | $8,489,729,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.13 | $8,489,729,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.13 | $8,489,729,246 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.10 | $8,444,529,246 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.10 | $8,444,529,246 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.10 | $8,444,529,246 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.03 | $8,326,469,704 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.05 | $8,326,469,704 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.90 | $8,210,118,719 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.77 | $8,104,118,719 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.77 | $8,104,118,719 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.77 | $8,068,058,719 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.77 | $8,068,058,719 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.82 | $8,146,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.82 | $8,146,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.82 | $8,146,500,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.82 | $8,146,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.82 | $8,146,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.82 | $8,146,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.82 | $8,146,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.82 | $8,146,500,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.