First American Financial Corporation (FAF)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
$68.20+0.78%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FAF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FAF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 21, 2026, First American Financial Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is being “furnished” in accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K. As such, this information is not deemed to be “filed” for the purposes of Sectio…
Why it matters: The segment's margin fell to 9.9% in Q3 from 14.1% a year earlier. A lasting drop would point to pressure from higher marketing costs.
Worry ifHome Warranty pretax margin is below 10% for a second straight quarter.
Less concerning ifHome Warranty pretax margin rises above 12% next quarter.
Why it matters: Management said the residential market would stay weak after mortgage rates rose. A sharp drop in orders would show the weakness is getting worse.
Worry ifU.S. direct title closed orders fall more than 5% year over year in a quarter.
Less concerning ifU.S. direct title closed orders are flat or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Management has named AI platform work as a key focus, but has not shared a measured result. A clear rollout date and customer use would show progress.
Supportive ifThe company sets a launch date for its AI-native title platforms. It reports customer use or measured time savings.
Worry ifThe next two quarterly updates give no launch date, customer use, or measured result for the platforms.
Why it matters: Commercial revenue rose 21% in Q3 after 34% growth in Q2. Growth above 15% would show this key driver remains strong.
Supportive ifQ4 U.S. Commercial revenue is up more than 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 U.S. Commercial revenue is flat or down year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$119 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $276 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,327 loss on $10,000 · 23.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.