First American Financial Corporation (FAF)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$72.75-4.91%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FAF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers
FAF — capital allocation — Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders
Dated 2026-05-15
Material Modification to Rights of Security Holders. The information set forth under
Why it matters: Stable cash flow is important for funding growth and paying dividends.
Worry ifQ3 cash flow from operations below $300 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash flow from operations at or above $300 million.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income shows that management is working to make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 is more than $161.8 million from Q1.
Worry ifOperating income for Q2 is lower than $161.8 million.
Why it matters: Strong growth in commercial revenue shows market strength and success in operations.
Supportive ifCommercial revenues for Q2 are over $271 million. This is more than Q1.
Worry ifCommercial revenues for Q2 fall below $271 million.
Why it matters: An increase would show strong cash flow and a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThere is news about a dividend increase above the current $2.20 rate.
Worry ifThere is no news about a dividend increase.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 15% would signal a slowdown in the company's performance. This could impact future growth expectations.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported below 15% compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported at or above 15% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: A drop below this level could show weaker profits during market challenges.
Worry ifQ3 net income per share exceeds $2.00.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income per share falls below $2.00.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows if the company can keep its core business strong.
Worry ifQ3 Title Insurance and Services revenue growth below 14% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 Title Insurance and Services revenue growth at or above 14% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows improved efficiency and financial health. This is important for funding growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $400 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $300 million.
Why it matters: A drop below this level could indicate a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A rising debt-to-capital ratio means more financial risk. This may worry investors about the company's debt.
Worry ifThe debt-to-capital ratio was over 33% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifDebt-to-capital ratio was at or below 33% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Paying dividends shows that the company is stable. It also cares about its shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.55 in Q2.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.55 in Q2.
Why it matters: A drop below this threshold would signal a slowdown in the company's growth momentum. This could raise concerns about the sustainability of recent gains.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue growth below 10% compared to the same quarter last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 total revenue growth remains above 10% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: Updates on AI projects will show how the company is improving operations and service. This is important for future growth.
Watch forManagement talks about successful AI projects in the Q3 earnings call.
Also watch forManagement does not talk about any major progress on AI projects in the Q3 call.
Why it matters: Showing how AI projects work would prove management's plan. It helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifManagement reports clear gains in efficiency or revenue from AI projects by Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo clear gains reported from AI projects by Q2 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in cash flow shows better financial health and good management.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities for Q2 is more than $5.6 million from Q1.
Worry ifCash from operating activities for Q2 is lower than $5.6 million.
Why it matters: Strong growth in commercial revenue is key to overall performance. It indicates demand in the real estate market.
Supportive ifQ3 commercial revenue growth exceeding 30% compared to the same quarter last year.
Worry ifQ3 commercial revenue growth falls below 20% compared to the same quarter last year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow from operations helps First American meet its goals.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities is up more than 10% from last year.
Worry ifCash from operating activities is down compared to last year.
Why it matters: Paying dividends shows good finances. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividends are declared at the same or higher levels as the previous quarter.
Worry ifDividends are cut or suspended.
Why it matters: A drop in margin may mean higher costs or more competition. This can hurt profits and investor trust.
Worry ifTitle insurance pretax margin remains above 10% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifTitle insurance pretax margin falls below 9% in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $272 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,845 loss on $10,000 · 18.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.