Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Diamondback Energy (FANG)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$179.58-1.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
18.75 → 21.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 18 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 18; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FANG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Full-year cash capital expenditures near $3.9 billion | A supporting condition in Diamondback Energy's published investment case. The stated target is ~$3.9B. | Intact | annual capex guidance falls significantly below $3.9B | Capital expenditures: $996M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$3.9B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026996,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical energy producer, meaning its results are exposed to shifts in the broader energy sector. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: production guidance has edged higher and capital returns are on track, but recent financial performance is weak relative to industry peers.
The valuation evidence points to FANG as cheap versus peers, with expectations slightly below the model’s baseline. The market setup is described as justified, not broadly fragile, though a turbulent sector remains a source of risk.
Over the near term, production guidance has risen and spending has stayed near the stated plan, while dividends and repurchase authorization have increased. Recent results remain weak relative to peers, despite an October earnings beat, and the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.
The near-term case would weaken if FANG cuts guidance on its next call, or if sector bellwethers begin missing results or guiding lower. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from those peers would support the sector backdrop; FANG’s own delivery on production and spending priorities remains important over the multi-year view.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis balances incremental production growth and capital returns against weak relative performance and exposure to a changing energy-sector backdrop. The evidence supports a cautious, watchful view, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It increased its base dividend to $1.10 per share in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| dividend cut or net income falls below breakeven |
Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Dividend per share from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable management and leadership confidence | A supporting condition in Diamondback Energy's published investment case. The stated target is No significant insider selling or governance issues. | Under Pressure | material insider selling or governance problems increase | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual oil production above 520 MBO/d | Diamondback Energy aims to grow oil production above 520 MBO/d. | Intact | production guidance falls below 520 MBO/d or revenue growth falls below ~7.8% next year | Revenue: $5.431B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=520 MBO/d. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20265,431,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$17.12 → $21.22 · observed estimates
$17.08B → $18.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $17.12 | $17,079,091,430 | 24 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $17.12 | $17,079,091,430 | 24 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $17.12 | $17,079,091,430 | 24 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $17.12 | $17,079,091,430 | 24 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $16.73 | $16,661,505,711 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $17.16 | $17,087,534,210 | 24 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $16.76 | $16,665,124,044 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $16.76 | $16,665,124,044 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $16.76 | $16,665,124,044 | 15 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $17.36 | $16,878,775,269 | 24 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $16.70 | $16,635,677,329 | 16 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $17.23 | $16,720,503,840 | 24 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $17.44 | $16,770,140,860 | 24 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $17.44 | $16,770,140,860 | 24 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $17.42 | $16,731,593,276 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $17.85 | $16,822,043,490 | 25 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $17.94 | $16,821,982,240 | 25 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $17.42 | $16,731,593,276 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $17.94 | $16,821,982,240 | 25 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $17.42 | $16,731,593,276 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $17.42 | $16,731,593,276 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $17.42 | $16,731,593,276 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $17.42 | $16,731,593,276 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $17.42 | $16,731,593,276 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $17.42 | $16,731,593,276 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $17.42 | $16,731,593,276 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $17.42 | $16,731,593,276 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $17.91 | $17,035,708,637 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $18.18 | $17,128,165,604 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $18.18 | $17,128,165,604 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $18.18 | $17,128,165,604 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $18.18 | $17,128,165,604 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $18.21 | $17,213,211,060 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $18.21 | $17,213,211,060 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $18.21 | $17,213,211,060 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $18.21 | $17,213,211,060 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $18.21 | $17,213,211,060 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $18.21 | $17,213,211,060 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $18.21 | $17,213,211,060 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $18.21 | $17,213,211,060 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $18.21 | $17,213,211,060 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $18.18 | $17,235,119,275 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $18.18 | $17,235,119,275 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $18.18 | $17,235,119,275 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $18.18 | $17,235,119,275 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $18.18 | $17,235,119,275 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $18.18 | $17,235,119,275 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $18.19 | $17,235,119,275 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $18.19 | $17,235,119,275 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $18.35 | $17,235,119,275 | 17 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $18.35 | $17,235,119,275 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $18.35 | $17,235,119,275 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $18.35 | $17,235,119,275 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $18.34 | $17,235,119,275 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $18.34 | $17,235,119,275 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $18.34 | $17,235,119,275 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $18.34 | $17,235,119,275 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $18.34 | $17,235,119,275 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $18.57 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $18.57 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $18.57 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $18.57 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $18.57 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $18.57 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $18.66 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $18.66 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $18.66 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $18.66 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $18.66 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $18.66 | $17,351,877,188 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $18.66 | $17,399,239,275 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $18.64 | $17,405,792,405 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $18.75 | $17,405,792,405 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $18.75 | $17,405,792,405 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $18.75 | $17,405,792,405 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $18.84 | $17,450,618,492 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $18.84 | $17,450,618,492 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $18.84 | $17,450,618,492 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $18.84 | $17,450,618,492 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $19.03 | $17,450,618,492 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $19.03 | $17,450,618,492 | 16 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $19.14 | $17,520,705,448 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $19.24 | $17,551,444,579 | 16 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $19.52 | $17,640,173,904 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $20.22 | $17,894,468,520 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $20.22 | $17,894,468,520 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $20.19 | $17,856,718,520 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $20.19 | $17,856,718,520 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $20.48 | $17,918,785,395 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $20.91 | $18,043,827,062 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $20.91 | $18,043,827,062 | 17 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $21.01 | $18,085,131,229 | 18 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $21.01 | $18,085,131,229 | 18 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $21.01 | $18,085,131,229 | 18 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $21.01 | $18,085,131,229 | 18 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $21.01 | $18,085,131,229 | 18 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $21.01 | $18,090,410,180 | 18 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $21.01 | $18,090,410,180 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $21.01 | $18,090,410,180 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $21.01 | $18,090,410,180 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $21.01 | $18,090,410,179 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $21.01 | $18,090,410,179 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $20.94 | $18,087,682,895 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $21.22 | $18,269,929,129 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $21.22 | $18,269,929,129 | 18 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 27 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 5 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.