Diamondback Energy (FANG)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$199.22-1.83%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FANG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FANG — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-15
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 12, 2026, Diamondback Energy, Inc., as parent guarantor (the “Company”) and Diamondback E&P LLC (the “Borrower”) entered into a seventeenth amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of November 1, 2013, with Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent (the “Administrative Agent”), and the lenders party thereto (as amended, supplemented or otherwise modified to the date there…
Why it matters: More spending on capital shows a focus on growth. It means expanding operations.
Supportive ifCapital spending plans for 2026 are $3.90 billion or more.
Worry ifCapital spending plans for 2026 are below $3.75 billion.
Why it matters: More cash spending means more investment in growth and operations.
Supportive ifTotal cash spending confirmed at ~$3.90 billion.
Worry ifTotal cash spending stays below ~$3.75 billion.
Why it matters: Free Cash Flow results show how well Diamondback manages cash and returns to shareholders.
Supportive ifQ1 2026 Free Cash Flow exceeds $1.7 billion.
Worry ifQ1 2026 Free Cash Flow falls below $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows strong investment in growth and operations.
Worry ifTotal cash spending in Q2 2026 is over $1 billion.
Less concerning ifTotal cash spending in Q2 2026 is under $925 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $330 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,953 loss on $10,000 · 19.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show strong cash flow and a promise to give back to investors.
Supportive ifDiamondback announces share buybacks of over $100 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases are announced in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Good debt management can help financial stability. It can also lower interest costs.
Watch forThe tender offer for Senior Notes is complete. A large amount of principal was retired.
Also watch forThe tender offer did not retire a large amount of Senior Notes.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. This can affect investor feelings.
Watch forEarnings report shows higher than expected revenue and free cash flow.
Also watch forEarnings report shows lower than expected revenue and free cash flow.
Why it matters: Exceeding this target would show good cash flow management. It would also mean better financial leverage.
Supportive ifTotal debt reduction reported at more than $1.3 billion.
Worry ifTotal debt is now below $1.3 billion.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks show strong cash flow. They also show a commitment to returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare buybacks continue, with $9.9 billion left in the plan.
Worry ifShare buybacks slow down a lot or stop.
Why it matters: More increases would show strong cash flow and a commitment to returning money.
Supportive ifA press release announces an increase in the base dividend after Q2 2026 earnings.
Worry ifNo news of dividend increases after Q2 2026 earnings.
Why it matters: This purchase could help Diamondback work better. It may also strengthen its market position.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of Rattler Midstream closes successfully by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition may be delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: A higher dividend shows strong finances and a promise to return cash to investors.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase to more than $1.10 per share.
Worry ifManagement does not increase the base dividend from $1.10 per share.
Why it matters: If production guidance goes up, it shows growth. This can boost investor trust in Diamondback.
Supportive ifManagement says production guidance will rise by over 5% for 2026.
Worry ifProduction guidance stays the same or goes down from current levels.
Why it matters: Higher guidance shows strong performance and growth for the year.
Supportive ifAnnual oil production guidance raised above 520 MBO/d.
Worry ifAnnual oil production guidance remains at or below 520 MBO/d.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is performing.
Watch forEarnings report shows a big beat on earnings per share compared to estimates.
Also watch forEarnings report shows a miss on earnings per share compared to estimates.
Why it matters: If production guidance goes down, it may show problems or weak markets.
Worry ifQ3 2026 oil production guidance reported below 517 MBO/d.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 oil production guidance remains at or above 517 MBO/d.
Why it matters: More spending may show a change in how money is managed. This can affect cash flow.
Worry ifQ3 2026 cash capital spending is above $1,050 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 cash capital spending is at or below $1,050 million.
Why it matters: Changes may show new ways to use capital. This can affect how investors feel.
Watch forThe Board says it will increase share buyback plans to over $16 billion.
Also watch forThe Board reduces or suspends the share repurchase program.