Diamondback Energy (FANG)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$179.58-1.80%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FANG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FANG — officer change
Dated 2026-09-30
Director — Darin Holderness and Lance Robertson: Two directors resigned as part of a contractual board stepdown, representing a planned reduction in board size rather than a sudden executive loss or routine annual election.
Why it matters: Cash costs rose from $10.10 per BOE in Q2 2025 to $10.96 in Q2 2026. A further rise would add pressure.
Worry ifQ3 total cash operating costs exceed $11.26 per BOE, the Q1 2026 level.
Less concerning ifQ3 total cash operating costs are below $10.96 per BOE, the Q2 2026 level.
Why it matters: This tests Diamondback’s raised 2026 oil goal. Q3 output below the range would weaken the growth case.
Watch forIn the November 2 results, Q3 oil output is at least 517 MBO/d and full-year guidance stays at 522+ MBO/d.
Also watch forQ3 oil output is below 517 MBO/d, or full-year oil guidance falls below 522 MBO/d.
Why it matters: Spending above the stated range could push annual costs above the $3.9 billion plan.
Worry ifQ3 cash spending on capital exceeds $1.05 billion. Or full-year 2026 spending guidance rises above about $3.9 billion.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash capital spending stays at or below $1.05 billion and full-year guidance remains about $3.9 billion.
Why it matters: Oil prices shape cash flow and the funds available for debt cuts and share repurchases.
Watch forThe full Q3 report shows average unhedged oil prices at or above $87.30 per barrel.
Also watch forThe full Q3 report shows average unhedged oil prices below $87.30 per barrel.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$129 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $355 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,953 loss on $10,000 · 19.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.