Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)
NYSEMaterialsCopperSnapshot 2026-07-08
$57.47-3.14%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Track FCX free→Freeport-McMoRan expects to produce about 3.1 billion pounds of copper in 2026. Capital spending is disciplined, targeted near $4.3 billion. Cash costs are managed around $1.95 per pound. These support steady revenue near $6.2 billion and free cash flow above $8.7 billion.
Copper production faces delays, notably at Grasberg, threatening growth. Rising unit cash costs challenge profitability. Recent guidance cuts and a 17% price drop reflect these risks. Capital allocation and cost control remain uncertain.
The market prices in about 20% revenue growth and values shares roughly 9% above our fair value near $55. Our fair value is 26% below the Street median, reflecting more cautious expectations. We see risks in production and cost targets that may pressure results.
Breaks if: Capital expenditures exceed $4.3 billion by more than 10% in FY26
Maintain disciplined capital expenditure management to support strategic projects.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.3 billion for 2026, down from $4.5 billion in 2025, indicating disciplined management. The trajectory is on track with management's guidance.
“Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.3 billion.”
“For the year 2025, capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.5 billion.”
“Capital expenditures are expected to approximate $4.9 billion.”
Breaks if: Unit cash costs rise above $1.95 per pound in FY26
Continue efforts to optimize cash costs to improve profitability.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Average unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.95 per pound of copper for 2026, up from $1.75 in 2025, indicating mixed progress in cost optimization efforts.
“Average unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.95 per pound of copper.”
“Unit net cash costs are expected to average $1.75 per pound of copper.”
“Efforts to optimize cash costs continue.”
Breaks if: Copper sales fall below 3.1 billion pounds in FY26
Focus on increasing copper production to meet growing demand.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. Management expects consolidated sales to approximate 3.1 billion pounds of copper for the year 2026. However, the financials show a decline in revenue from $8.5 billion in 2023-Q4 to $4.58 billion in 2025-Q4, indicating limited progress in increasing copper production so far.
“Consolidated sales are expected to approximate 3.1 billion pounds of copper for the year 2026.”
Breaks if: Free cash flow falls below $8.7 billion in FY26