FedEx (FDX)
NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$312.86+0.94%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track FDX free→FedEx completed the spin-off of FedEx Freight by June 2026, unlocking value. Revenue is expected near $94.7 billion in fiscal 2026 with EPS guidance up to $17.75. Capital spending is capped near $4.1 billion, showing disciplined investment. The company returns capital to shareholders with $4.3 billion in dividends and buybacks.
FedEx faces risks from abandoning its supply chain business, which may weaken its core logistics network. Management turnover and legal challenges add uncertainty. Revenue growth is expected to slow to about 0.5% next year, signaling pressure on demand. The recent sharp share price selloff reflects these concerns.
The price is about 19% below our fair value near $387 and 19% below consensus targets. Analysts expect roughly 0.5% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is 11% above the Street median, reflecting some optimism on execution and capital returns.
Breaks if: Capital returned falls below $3.5 billion annually
Continue returning capital to stockholders through dividends and share repurchases, including robust buyback programs and dividend increases.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. FedEx returned approximately $4.3 billion to stockholders in fiscal 2025 via dividends and share repurchases, with ongoing repurchase programs and dividend increases announced in 2026. The trajectory shows consistent capital return execution.
“Announced commencement of cash tender offers to reduce indebtedness and support leverage-neutral profile.”
“FedEx completed $276 million in share repurchases; $1.3 billion remained available under repurchase authorization.”
“Completed $500 million share repurchases during quarter; $1.6 billion remained available for repurchases.”
“Returned $4.3 billion to stockholders through stock repurchases and dividends during fiscal 2025.”
“Completed $500 million share repurchases; $2.6 billion remained available for repurchases.”
“Completed $1 billion share repurchases; $3.1 billion remained available for repurchases.”
Breaks if: Capital spending exceeds $4.5 billion in FY26
Maintain capital spending at or below $4.1 billion in fiscal 2026, prioritizing network optimization and efficiency improvements.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Management revised capital spending guidance down from $4.5 billion to $4.1 billion for fiscal 2026, emphasizing network optimization and efficiency. The trajectory shows disciplined capital allocation consistent with stated priorities.
“Capital spending of no more than $4.1 billion, with priority on network optimization and efficiency improvement.”
“Capital spending of $4.1 billion, with priority on investments in network optimization and efficiency improvement.”
“Capital spending of $4.5 billion, with priority on investments in network optimization and efficiency improvement.”
“Capital spending of $4.5 billion, with priority on investments in network optimization and efficiency improvement.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $16.0 in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $90 billion in FY26
Complete the tax-efficient spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company by June 1, 2026.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. The spin-off of FedEx Freight was completed on June 1, 2026, establishing it as an independent publicly traded company. This milestone matches management's repeated statements and shows delivery on this strategic priority.
“Spin-off of FedEx Freight on track for June 1, 2026.”
“Planned spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company continues to advance and is expected to be achieved June 1, 2026.”
“Spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company is on track for June 1, 2026.”
“Spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company expected to be achieved in a tax-efficient manner by June 1, 2026.”
“Spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company expected by June 2026.”
“Board decided to pursue full separation of FedEx Freight through capital markets, creating a new publicly traded company.”
Breaks if: Spin-off delayed beyond Q3 2026 or reversed
Complete the tax-efficient spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company by June 1, 2026.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. The spin-off of FedEx Freight was completed on June 1, 2026, establishing it as an independent publicly traded company. This milestone matches management's repeated statements and shows delivery on this strategic priority.
“Spin-off of FedEx Freight on track for June 1, 2026.”
“Planned spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company continues to advance and is expected to be achieved June 1, 2026.”
“Spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company is on track for June 1, 2026.”
“Spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company expected to be achieved in a tax-efficient manner by June 1, 2026.”
“Spin-off of FedEx Freight into a new publicly traded company expected by June 2026.”
“Board decided to pursue full separation of FedEx Freight through capital markets, creating a new publicly traded company.”