Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.50-2.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.42 → 3.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FFBC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at $0.25 | The company keeps dividends stable at $0.25 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.25 | Dividend per share: $0.25 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.25 USD per share. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20260.25 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional bank recovery and value case, not a clear durable compounder today. The thesis is in a watch state: recent momentum improved, but financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
FFBC is cheap versus peers, and the valuation is marked as justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting limited evidence that the market is overlooking a major upside surprise; the valuation measure has also weakened recently.
Near term, the latest release showed record revenue and loan growth, while the earnings beat and completed acquisition are positive developments. Over the multi-year view, execution still depends on integrating Finward and sustaining loan and fee growth; loss-making earnings quality and rising classified assets temper the picture.
The favorable case depends on continued loan production, fee income, and successful integration of Finward, alongside stable credit quality. Near-term guidance cuts or rate reductions are risks, while continued strength among financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FFBC presents a cheap-versus-peers thesis with improving operating signs, but earnings quality, credit trends, and acquisition delivery remain unresolved. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| grows profits steadily with net income rising to $74.4 million in Q1 2026. |
| Broken |
| net income falls below $74 million in Q1 2026 |
Net income: $76.456M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=74 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202676,456,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete authorized buyback of up to 5 million shares | A supporting condition in First Financial Bancorp.'s published investment case. The stated target is buyback of ~4.8% shares outstanding. | Intact | buyback authorization is revoked or materially delayed | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.45 → $3.44 · observed estimates
$1.13B → $1.21B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.45 | $1,129,420,000 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.42 | $1,122,733,330 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.40 | $1,148,635,908 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.42 | $1,123,750,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.40 | $1,148,635,908 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.41 | $1,178,708,617 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.48 | $1,205,380,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.48 | $1,205,380,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.48 | $1,205,380,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.48 | $1,205,380,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.48 | $1,205,380,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.48 | $1,205,380,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.48 | $1,205,380,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.38 | $1,192,241,950 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.39 | $1,193,575,283 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.39 | $1,193,575,283 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.42 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.44 | $1,199,616,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.44 | $1,198,950,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.48 | $1,199,984,184 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.47 | $1,204,044,184 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.44 | $1,207,063,714 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.44 | $1,207,063,714 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.44 | $1,207,063,714 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.44 | $1,207,016,667 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.44 | $1,207,016,667 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.