First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.98+0.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FFBC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
FFBC — government funding
Dated 2026-07-21
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement Overview On July 21, 2026, First Financial Bancorp., an Ohio corporation (the “Company”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with Finward Bancorp, an Indiana corporation (“Seller” or “Finward”). The Merger Agreement provides that, upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein, Seller would merge with and into the Company (the “Merger”), with the Company continuing as the surviving corporation in the…
Why it matters: Higher dividends show strong financial health and a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board announces a dividend increase above $0.26 per share.
Worry ifThe Board maintains the dividend at $0.26 or cuts it.
Why it matters: The buyback program can help the share price. It shows management trusts the company.
Supportive ifManagement says many shares have been bought back in the program.
Worry ifNo updates on share repurchases or a halt in the buyback program.
Why it matters: A rise in noninterest income can boost profits and balance drops in net interest income.
Supportive ifQ3 noninterest income is over $73.8 million. This shows recovery from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 noninterest income stays below $73.8 million. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin could mean less profit due to rising costs.
Worry ifNet interest margin reported below 3.90% for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains stable or increases above 4.00% in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $185 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,420 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs could mean higher credit risk and affect asset quality.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are under 0.20% of total loans. This shows stable asset quality.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are over 0.25% of total loans. This raises worries about credit quality.
Why it matters: Changes to the dividend may show how the company uses its money. This can affect how investors feel.
Watch forThe company raises the dividend per share above $0.25.
Also watch forThe company cuts the dividend per share below $0.25.
Why it matters: Better asset quality means loans perform well. It also lowers credit risk.
Supportive ifNonperforming assets decrease to below 0.40% of total assets in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNonperforming assets rise above 0.50% of total assets in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Share buybacks can boost earnings per share and signal management's confidence in the stock.
Supportive ifThe company buys back at least 1 million shares by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifNo shares are repurchased by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: High growth in noninterest income shows strong performance in services that earn fees.
Supportive ifNoninterest income grew over 20% year over year.
Worry ifNoninterest income grew below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: This acquisition could help First Financial earn more and grow in Chicago.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is on schedule. All needed approvals are in place.
Worry ifThe deal is delayed or fails due to regulatory issues or other problems.
Why it matters: Net interest margin is key for bank profits. Changes can affect total earnings.
Watch forNet interest margin stays at or above 3.99%. This shows stable profits.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 3.90%. This may show problems with interest income.
Why it matters: Net interest margin affects profits. Changes show how well the company adjusts to rates.
Watch forNet interest margin remains above 3.90% after the June FOMC meeting.
Also watch forNet interest margin drops below 3.90% after the June FOMC meeting.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is doing well and cares about investors.
Supportive ifThey announced the dividend will stay at $0.25 per share.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut below $0.25 per share.
Why it matters: Loan growth is important for revenue. Strong growth shows good integration of acquisitions.
Supportive ifLoan balances increase by more than $70 million in Q2 2026, showing effective growth.
Worry ifLoan balances fall or stay the same. This suggests problems with integration or the market.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this guidance shows strong financial performance. It also shows growth momentum.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 EPS of $0.80 or more during the earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q3 EPS guidance to below $0.80.
Why it matters: Net income growth is a key priority. Strong results can signal ongoing business strength.
Supportive ifQ2 net income reported above $15 million.
Worry ifQ2 net income reported below $10 million.
Why it matters: Keeping net income growth is key for investor trust and financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 net income exceeds $76.5 million, continuing the growth trend from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 net income drops below $76.5 million. This shows possible profit problems.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows good execution of growth plans and helps earnings.
Supportive ifLoan growth exceeds 7% annualized in Q3.
Worry ifLoan growth falls below 5% annualized in Q3.
Why it matters: Slower EPS growth could mean less profit and affect how investors feel.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS growth reported below 5% YoY for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS growth exceeds 5% YoY in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in the allowance can show shifts in credit quality and risk management.
Worry ifAllowance for credit losses increases by more than 10% in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifAllowance for credit losses decreases or remains stable in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth may mean bigger economic problems for FFBC.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.