Fiserv (FISV)
NASDAQFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$62.74+1.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FISV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FISV — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-09-22
Chief Administrative Officer — Adam L. Rosman: The departure of the Chief Administrative Officer and Chief Legal Officer is an orderly succession with a named internal successor, indicating a planned transition rather than a sudden loss.
Why it matters: In August, Fiserv cut its 2026 outlook to organic revenue of -1% to 0% and adjusted EPS of $7.20 to $7.40. The next report tests whether results stay within that lower range.
Watch forThe Nov. 3 report keeps organic revenue at -1% to 0% and adjusted EPS at $7.20 to $7.40, or raises either range.
Also watch forThe Nov. 3 report cuts either range below organic revenue of -1% or adjusted EPS of $7.20.
Why it matters: First-half free cash flow fell to $1.36 billion from $1.54 billion. A recovery would support debt payments and other capital plans.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow reaches or exceeds the 2025 first-half level of $1.54 billion by midyear 2027.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 free cash flow remains below $1.54 billion, with no stated timing for a rebound.
Why it matters: Fiserv completed the MoneyPass Group joint venture in August and kept a minority stake. Its first reported results can show how the change affects revenue and cash.
Watch forA later Fiserv report names revenue or cash gains from MoneyPass Group, with no related cut to the outlook.
Also watch forA later report names a MoneyPass-related loss or cost, or cuts the outlook due to the venture.
Why it matters: Adjusted operating margin fell to 31.8% in Q2 from 39.6% a year earlier. Better margins would show that the plan is helping results.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating margin rises above 31.8% in a later quarter. Management links the gain to One Fiserv work.
Worry ifAdjusted operating margin stays at or below 31.8% in the next report, or falls further.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $393 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,649 loss on $10,000 · 36.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Financial Solutions organic revenue fell 8% in Q2, worse than Merchant Solutions. A smaller decline would mark a clear change in this weak segment.
Supportive ifFinancial Solutions organic revenue falls by less than 8% year over year in the next report. Or it turns positive.
Worry ifFinancial Solutions organic revenue falls by 8% or more year over year again.