Fiserv (FISV)
NASDAQFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$53.00+0.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FISV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FISV — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
of this Current Report on Form 8-K) 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. FISERV, INC. Date: August 6, 2026 By: /s/ Paul M. Todd Paul M. Todd Chief Financial Officer
Why it matters: This will show if Fiserv can recover from a 4% decline in Q1. Meeting the target indicates the company is on track for its full-year growth outlook.
Supportive ifQ2 organic revenue growth reported at 1% or higher.
Worry ifQ2 organic revenue growth was less than 1%.
Why it matters: How this offer goes will impact the company's finances. It also affects flexibility.
Watch forThe tender offer was completed successfully. Many people took part.
Also watch forLow participation in the tender offer or if the offer is canceled.
Why it matters: This event will provide insights into Fiserv's strategy and growth plans. Key announcements could impact investor sentiment.
Watch forGood news or guidance at Investor Day can make investors feel more confident.
Also watch forNo new plans or bad comments can make people worry about future results.
Why it matters: The company is buying back shares. This can show confidence in its financial health.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks over $200 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo new share buyback announcements in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$198 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $352 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,541 loss on $10,000 · 65.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS guidance is now $7.20 to $7.40. This shows how they expect to perform.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 2026 is below $1.80.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS in Q3 2026 is above $1.80.
Why it matters: A larger decline would indicate ongoing challenges in Fiserv's business segments. This could raise concerns about its market position.
Worry ifQ2 GAAP revenue decline worse than -2%.
Less concerning ifGAAP revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: The guidance will show if Fiserv can recover from recent revenue declines. Investors want to see if the company can meet its growth targets.
Supportive ifManagement raises the revenue growth outlook for 2026 to over 0%.
Worry ifManagement lowers the revenue growth outlook for 2026 to under -1%.
Why it matters: The company's organic revenue growth outlook was revised down to (1%) to 0%. This is a key indicator of business health.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth in Q3 2026 is worse than -1%.
Less concerning ifOrganic revenue growth in Q3 2026 is better than 0%.
Why it matters: The company changed its revenue outlook to between -1% and 0%. This shows growth is hard. Stable guidance would show more confidence.
Supportive ifManagement confirms revenue growth of 1% to 3% for 2026.
Worry ifThere is a further cut in revenue growth guidance below -1%.
Why it matters: The adjusted EPS outlook was lowered to $7.20 to $7.40. Meeting this target would signal better financial health amid recent declines.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported at or above $7.20 for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $7.20 for 2026.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show confidence in the company's value. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThere is a plan for more share repurchases beyond the current $300 million.
Worry ifNo further share repurchases announced or a halt in the current buyback program.
Why it matters: This program is important for better operations and technology. Progress may boost investor trust in long-term growth.
Supportive ifManagement sees clear gains in efficiency from the One Fiserv program.
Worry ifNo visible progress or further delays in the One Fiserv program.