Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Fiserv (FISV)
NASDAQFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$62.74+1.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.95 → 7.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 22 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 22 to 22; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FISV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective capital allocation including share buybacks | A supporting condition in Fiserv's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase share buybacks and manage debt prudently. | Recovered | Capital allocation deteriorates with increased debt or halted buybacks | Buybacks active ($500M Q4 plan) vs halted target Nov 3 earnings beat with $500M buyback plan and $1B cost target. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large financial technology business with a challenged execution story, rather than a clear durable compounder today. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: risk has eased from high to elevated, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence describes FISV as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market already reflects weak expectations. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the discount alone does not show that the market is overlooking the business risks.
Near term, results and guidance show weaker momentum: management cut its 2026 organic growth outlook from 1% to 3% to negative 1% to zero, and its adjusted EPS range from $8.00 to $8.30 to $7.20 to $7.40. Revenue rose between the first and second quarters, but operating income declined in both quarters and the latest quarter was an earnings miss. Management continues to emphasize its transformation program, though visible financial proof remains limited; recent leadership transitions add context but the evidence does not establish their effects.
The multi-year thesis hinges on management delivering measurable improvements from the One Fiserv program and stabilizing growth and earnings after the guidance cuts. Near term, another guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while sustained earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support broader financial-sector momentum. The effect of any rate cuts is another swing factor, since the evidence says financials usually do better when rates stay high.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FISV’s case depends on a recovery in execution, not on its peer discount alone. The evidence is mixed, with lower risk but elevated execution concerns and weaker guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company guides EPS around $8.15 for 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $8.0 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $-11.17 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $8.0 and $8.3. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-11.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Progress on One Fiserv transformation program | A supporting condition in Fiserv's published investment case. The stated target is Sustained operational improvements and cost efficiencies. | Improving | Transformation program stalls or reverses progress | Cost savings target doubled to $1.0B vs qualitative target News confirms doubled $1B savings target, 3,000 job cuts, and earnings beat, advancing the One Fiserv transformation. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Organic revenue growth of 1% to 3% for 2026 | Fiserv aims for organic revenue growth of 1% to 3% in 2026. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 1% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.94 → $7.96 · observed estimates
$20.86B → $20.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.94 | $20,855,212,440 | 36 / 27 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.94 | $20,855,212,440 | 36 / 27 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.94 | $20,851,645,770 | 36 / 27 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.93 | $20,853,836,990 | 37 / 28 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.93 | $20,853,836,990 | 37 / 28 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.93 | $20,853,836,990 | 37 / 28 |
| 2026-07-30 | $8.92 | $20,845,303,289 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-07-31 | $8.93 | $20,853,836,990 | 37 / 28 |
| 2026-08-01 | $8.92 | $20,845,253,912 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.92 | $20,845,253,912 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.93 | $20,853,836,990 | 37 / 28 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.93 | $20,853,836,990 | 37 / 28 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.93 | $20,853,836,990 | 37 / 28 |
| 2026-08-06 | $8.92 | $20,845,266,615 | 22 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $8.92 | $20,845,267,245 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-08 | $8.50 | $20,536,802,800 | 36 / 27 |
| 2026-08-09 | $8.50 | $20,536,802,800 | 36 / 27 |
| 2026-08-10 | $8.50 | $20,536,802,800 | 36 / 27 |
| 2026-08-11 | $8.92 | $20,845,267,245 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $8.25 | $20,354,250,240 | 37 / 29 |
| 2026-08-13 | $8.92 | $20,845,267,245 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-14 | $8.92 | $20,845,267,245 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-15 | $8.92 | $20,845,267,245 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-16 | $8.92 | $20,845,267,245 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-17 | $8.92 | $20,845,267,245 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-18 | $8.92 | $20,845,267,245 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-19 | $8.92 | $20,845,267,245 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-20 | $8.09 | $20,331,846,545 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-21 | $8.05 | $20,305,432,752 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-22 | $8.05 | $20,276,436,189 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-23 | $8.05 | $20,276,436,189 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-24 | $8.05 | $20,276,436,189 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-25 | $8.05 | $20,276,436,189 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-26 | $8.04 | $20,271,288,182 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-27 | $8.04 | $20,271,288,182 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-28 | $8.04 | $20,271,288,182 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-29 | $8.01 | $20,273,158,956 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-30 | $8.00 | $20,271,623,241 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-08-31 | $8.00 | $20,271,623,241 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-01 | $8.00 | $20,271,623,241 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-02 | $8.00 | $20,271,623,241 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.99 | $20,264,737,527 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.99 | $20,264,737,527 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.96 | $20,233,246,324 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.96 | $20,233,246,324 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.96 | $20,233,246,324 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.96 | $20,233,246,324 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.96 | $20,233,246,324 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.96 | $20,240,594,670 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.96 | $20,245,712,095 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.96 | $20,245,712,095 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.96 | $20,245,712,095 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.96 | $20,245,712,095 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.96 | $20,245,712,095 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.96 | $20,245,712,095 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.96 | $20,231,416,098 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.96 | $20,231,416,098 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.96 | $20,231,416,098 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.96 | $20,228,978,790 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.96 | $20,228,978,790 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.96 | $20,228,978,790 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.95 | $20,226,121,647 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.95 | $20,226,121,647 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.95 | $20,224,300,218 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.95 | $20,224,300,218 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.95 | $20,224,300,218 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.95 | $20,224,300,218 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.95 | $20,221,703,659 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.95 | $20,221,703,659 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.95 | $20,221,703,659 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.95 | $20,221,703,659 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.95 | $20,221,703,659 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.95 | $20,221,703,659 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.95 | $20,221,703,659 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.95 | $20,221,703,659 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.94 | $20,221,703,659 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.94 | $20,221,703,659 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.93 | $20,216,014,004 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.93 | $20,216,014,004 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.93 | $20,216,000,211 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.93 | $20,216,000,211 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.93 | $20,216,000,211 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.93 | $20,215,344,511 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.93 | $20,215,344,511 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.92 | $20,215,344,511 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.92 | $20,215,344,511 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.92 | $20,211,096,235 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.92 | $20,211,096,235 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.92 | $20,211,096,235 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.92 | $20,210,522,095 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.92 | $20,206,935,888 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.92 | $20,206,935,888 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.92 | $20,206,935,888 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.92 | $20,207,004,854 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.92 | $20,207,004,854 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.92 | $20,207,004,854 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-28 | $7.91 | $20,202,280,716 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-29 | $7.91 | $20,202,280,716 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-30 | $7.91 | $20,202,280,716 | 23 / 22 |
| 2026-10-31 | $7.91 | $20,202,280,716 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-11-01 | $7.91 | $20,202,280,716 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-11-02 | $7.91 | $20,202,280,716 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-11-03 | $7.91 | $20,202,276,412 | 22 / 22 |
| 2026-11-04 | $7.96 | $20,191,036,162 | 22 / 21 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 27 Hold · 4 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 16 recorded
0 raises · 4 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.