Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
Fossil Group Inc (FOSL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.76+1.90%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.24 → 0.24 EPS · FY ending Jan 3, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FOSL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve break-even free cash flow by end of 2026 | Fossil aims to break even on free cash flow by 2026 year-end. | Improving | free cash flow remains negative through FY26 | Free cash flow: $-10.062M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0 USD by 2026-12-31. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026-10,062,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-03 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk turnaround, not a durable compounder today, because the business remains loss-making and recent financial performance is weak. The thesis is in a watch state: risk has eased somewhat, but the evidence of a lasting recovery is still mixed.
FOSL is described as cheap versus peers, while the valuation model has low confidence and points to a negative expectations gap. The valuation tag is justified, with low fragility signals, but these measures do not remove the uncertainty around a loss-making business.
Near term, revenue remains under pressure, and operating margin fell from 5.4% in the first quarter of 2026 to 1.5% in the second. Management has raised its 2026 outlook and is progressing toward positive free cash flow, but recent free cash flow remains negative and the margin trend is mixed; the multi-year case depends on follow-through.
The key test is whether FOSL reaches positive free cash flow by year-end 2026, sustains a 4% to 6% adjusted operating margin, and returns to revenue growth in the fourth quarter. A guidance reversal would damage management credibility, while continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers could support or weaken the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, FOSL’s thesis rests on a successful turnaround, but weak results and uneven execution leave meaningful business risk despite cheaper peer valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Worldwide net sales to decline 3% to 5%, with a return to growth in the fourth quarter • Adjusted operating margin (1) in the range of 4% to 6% • Positive free cash flow (2) Worldwide net sales and adjusted operating margin guidance exclude impacts from foreign currency.” “Financial Outlook The Company reiterated the following financial guidance for full year 2026: • Worldwide net sales to decline 4% to 6%, with a return to growth in the fourth quarter • Adjusted operating margin (1) in the range of 3% to 5% • Free cash flow break-even (2) Worldwide net sales and adjusted operating margin guidance exclude impacts from foreign currency.” Operating cash flow was $-21.764 million in 2026-Q1.
Maintain operating margin between 3% and 5% in 2026 | It targets a profit margin between 3% and 5% in 2026. | Intact | operating margin falls below 3% in FY26 | Operating margin: 1.53% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 3% to 5% in 2026-12-31. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20261.52599 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Worldwide net sales to decline 3% to 5%, with a return to growth in the fourth quarter • Adjusted operating margin (1) in the range of 4% to 6% • Positive free cash flow (2) Worldwide net sales and adjusted operating margin guidance exclude impacts from foreign currency.” “Financial Outlook The Company reiterated the following financial guidance for full year 2026: • Worldwide net sales to decline 4% to 6%, with a return to growth in the fourth quarter • Adjusted operating margin (1) in the range of 3% to 5% • Free cash flow break-even (2) Worldwide net sales and adjusted operating margin guidance exclude impacts from foreign currency.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Return to revenue growth in Q4 2026 | A primary condition in Fossil Group Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >0% YoY growth in 2026-Q4. | Broken | revenue growth remains negative in 2026-Q4 | Revenue growth: -4.85% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0% YoY growth in 2026-Q4. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 13, 2026-4.849629 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Worldwide net sales to decline 3% to 5%, with a return to growth in the fourth quarter • Adjusted operating margin (1) in the range of 4% to 6% • Positive free cash flow (2) Worldwide net sales and adjusted operating margin guidance exclude impacts from foreign currency.” “Financial Outlook The Company reiterated the following financial guidance for full year 2026: • Worldwide net sales to decline 4% to 6%, with a return to growth in the fourth quarter • Adjusted operating margin (1) in the range of 3% to 5% • Free cash flow break-even (2) Worldwide net sales and adjusted operating margin guidance exclude impacts from foreign currency.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.10 → $0.24 · observed estimates
$0.97B → $0.98B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.10 | $965,250,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.11 | $970,030,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.18 | $975,112,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.24 | $977,355,433 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.24 | $977,341,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.24 | $978,940,500 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.