Fossil Group Inc (FOSL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.15+0.39%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FOSL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -61.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FOSL — CEO transition
Dated 2026-04-27
Chief Commercial Officer — Joe Martin: Joe Martin resigned to pursue other interests.
Why it matters: A drop in direct-to-consumer sales may show bigger problems with brand appeal and market plans.
Worry ifDirect-to-consumer sales drop more than 14.6% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifDirect-to-consumer sales stay the same or grow in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can shift company direction. This may affect performance.
Watch forNew CEO outlines a clear growth strategy in a press release.
Also watch forThe CEO change has not shown a clear plan or direction.
Why it matters: Stable leadership helps build investor trust. It affects the company's direction.
Watch forNew CEO shows clear strategic direction and stability within 6 months.
Also watch forMore executive exits or no clear plan in 6 months.
Why it matters: Getting to break-even cash flow is important for stability and growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow improves to near break-even by Q4 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative beyond Q4 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$220 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $718 loss on $10,000 · 7.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,227 loss on $10,000 · 52.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This report will show if Fossil can return to revenue growth as planned.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue shows growth year over year, indicating a positive trend.
Worry ifQ2 revenue continues to decline year over year, showing ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: A return to revenue growth signals success in the turnaround plan. It shows stronger demand and brand performance.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 worldwide net sales increase year over year.
Worry ifQ4 2026 worldwide net sales continue to decline year over year.
Why it matters: High consumer interest could boost sales. This would support the turnaround plan.
Watch forSales from new product launches exceed expectations in Q3 2026.
Also watch forSales from new product launches fall short of expectations in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This will show if Fossil can stabilize sales before a planned growth return in Q4.
Supportive ifQ3 worldwide net sales decline less than -5% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 worldwide net sales decline worse than -5% year over year.
Why it matters: This margin shows Fossil is managing costs well during its turnaround.
Supportive ifOperating margin is above 4% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifOperating margin falls below 4% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Meeting this goal shows strong money management. It also means better operations.
Supportive ifFree cash flow turns positive in Q4 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative in Q4 2026.