Fossil Group Inc (FOSL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$7.76+1.90%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FOSL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 5 industry peers
FOSL — officer change
Dated 2026-10-06
The filing discloses the approval of an amendment to a long-term incentive plan, which is a compensatory arrangement rather than a change in management personnel.
Why it matters: The report can show whether weak direct sales and leather demand are easing. Q2 direct sales fell 14.6% and leather sales fell 31.4%.
Watch forQ3 direct-to-consumer sales fall less than 14.6% year over year, and leather sales fall less than 31.4%.
Also watch forQ3 direct-to-consumer sales fall 14.6% or more year over year, or leather sales fall 31.4% or more.
Why it matters: Debt was $203.0 million in Q2, and interest expense rose from $4.3 million to $8.3 million year over year. Higher costs can weigh on cash.
Worry ifQ3 interest expense tops $8.3 million, or reported debt rises above the Q2 level of $203.0 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 interest expense is below $8.3 million and reported debt is at or below $203.0 million.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is a key stated goal. The latest outlook raised the bar from break-even, but recent cash flow remained negative.
Supportive ifFossil reports positive free cash flow for full-year 2026.
Worry ifFossil reports zero or negative free cash flow for full-year 2026, or cuts its positive cash flow outlook.
Why it matters: Management raised its outlook but still guides to lower sales for 2026. Q4 growth would mark the stated sales turn.
Supportive ifQ4 2026 net sales rise year over year, as management has guided.
Worry ifQ4 2026 net sales are flat or lower year over year, or the company removes its growth outlook.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$221 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $700 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,084 loss on $10,000 · 30.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The raised margin goal tests whether cost cuts and better product margins can lift results. Q2 reported margin was 1.5%.
Supportive ifThe company expects a full-year adjusted operating margin of 4% to 6%. It keeps that outlook.
Worry ifThe company cuts its 4% to 6% margin outlook, or full-year adjusted margin falls below 4%.