Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
Fox Factory (FOXF)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.37+7.42%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.82 → 1.22 EPS · FY ending Jan 2, 2028 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FOXF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit maintains or improves | A supporting condition in Fox Factory's published investment case. The stated target is >=106 million USD. | Improving | gross profit falls below 100 million USD next year | Gross profit: $109.693M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=106 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026109,693,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a recovery and execution story, not a proven durable compounder, because earnings quality is loss-making and management execution is rated volatile. The thesis is intact, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but confidence remains medium.
The valuation model shows FOXF at a 1.32 premium versus peers, with a meaningful expectations gap and a possible re-rating as the identified driver. The priced-in tag is unjustified, while fragility is low; together these signals suggest expectations may not fully reflect the business setup, but confidence in that assessment is medium.
Near term, cost savings are showing early progress: management reported more than $25 million of gross savings in the first half, and adjusted EBITDA rose between the first and second quarters, though the second-quarter figure included tariff refunds and higher input costs offset some savings. Debt reduction and portfolio sharpening have mixed progress, while a CEO transition and possible guidance cut add execution risk; the latest earnings event was positive, and recent performance is rated neutral.
The multi-year thesis depends on management delivering the approximately $50 million fiscal 2026 savings commitment while making further balance-sheet progress. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from sector bellwethers GPC, BWA, and APTV could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove that support.
Over the next one to three years, FOXF remains an intact but elevated-risk recovery thesis, with early savings progress countered by losses, volatile execution, and a meaningful guidance risk. The key test is whether cost savings and debt management translate into steadier fundamentals. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves to positive territory |
| Fox Factory is improving operating income, up to $5.95M in Q1 2026 from a large loss last year. |
| Improving |
| operating income falls below 0 million USD next year |
Operating income: $17.507M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.95 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202617,507,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows through market expansion and innovation | The company is focused on cost management and market expansion. | Intact | annual revenue falls below 1.33 billion USD in FY26 | Revenue: $358.122M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=1.37 billion USD annual revenue. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026358,122,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.74 → $1.22 · observed estimates
$1.44B → $1.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.74 | $1,437,445,004 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.84 | $1,482,846,125 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.86 | $1,493,912,791 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.82 | $1,463,829,458 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.82 | $1,463,829,458 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.82 | $1,463,129,458 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.68 | $1,432,896,125 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.68 | $1,432,896,125 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.60 | $1,400,512,791 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.31 | $1,307,033,236 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.31 | $1,307,033,236 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.22 | $1,270,860,883 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.