Fox Factory (FOXF)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.52+3.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FOXF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
FOXF — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-07
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Sixth Amendment to Credit Agreement and Third Amendment to Guaranty and Security Agreement On May 6, 2026, Fox Factory Holding Corp., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), entered into the Sixth Amendment to Credit Agreement and Third Amendment to Guaranty and Security Agreement (the “Amendment”) among the Company, certain subsidiaries of the Company, Wells Fargo Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, swingline lender and L/C issuer…
Why it matters: Stable sales would show demand is recovering after recent drops.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales are over $358 million. This shows demand is recovering.
Worry ifQ3 net sales fall below $343 million, signaling ongoing weakness.
Why it matters: This could help focus operations and improve profits.
Supportive ifNew directors were announced. The Transformation Committee had its first meeting.
Worry ifNo updates on board changes or committee activities within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows the company is getting better at managing costs. This can help it make more money.
Supportive ifManagement says it has saved a lot of costs toward the $50 million goal.
Worry ifManagement says cost savings are not meeting the $50 million goal.
Why it matters: New board members and a change committee may improve how the company runs.
Supportive ifGood performance metrics were seen after new directors joined the board.
Worry ifNo signs of better performance after the board changes.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$212 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $511 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,542 loss on $10,000 · 55.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This would show if Fox Factory's growth is slowing in a tough market. It could signal deeper issues with demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 1% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above 1% year over year.
Why it matters: Sales performance will show if the company can recover from recent drops.
Watch forNet sales exceed $365 million in Q3 and Q4 of 2026.
Also watch forNet sales fall below $343 million in Q3 and Q4 of 2026.
Why it matters: This report will show if revenue growth is improving. It is key for future profits.
Watch forRevenue growth in the Q2 report shows an increase over the previous quarter.
Also watch forRevenue growth in the Q2 report declines or stays flat compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows progress in managing costs. This helps restore investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income in Q2 is better than in the last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income in Q2 declines or stays flat compared to Q1.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would indicate challenges in managing costs and margins.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $32 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA was more than $40 million.
Why it matters: A higher margin shows good cost control and better efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was above 12.7% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin was below 11.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Getting these savings is important for better margins and profits as costs rise.
Supportive ifManagement confirms $40 million in cost savings realized by the end of Q3.
Worry ifManagement states that savings are below $20 million by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: New board members and a change committee could help with execution and profits.
Supportive ifThe new board members share good news about better operations.
Worry ifNo big changes in how the business performs after the board changes.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it shows weak demand, especially in powersports.
Worry ifQ3 net sales reported below $343 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales reported above $365 million.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean better cost control and a good product mix.
Supportive ifGross margin was above 28.9% in Q2, which shows improvement.
Worry ifGross margin was below 28.9%, showing ongoing pressure on profits.
Why it matters: This plan targets $40 million in savings for 2026. Success will show cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save over $25 million by mid-2026.
Worry ifSavings are less than $25 million by mid-2026. This shows execution problems.