Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
First Industrial Realty Trust (FR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$53.92-2.86%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.93 → 1.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for FR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustained dividend per share growth | Dividends per share increased from $0.445 to $0.50, showing steady capital return. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.45 next year | Dividend per share: $0.50 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.50 next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 20260.5 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
FR is a real estate growth and income business, with growth tied to leasing, development, and property investment. Its long-term thesis is under watch: momentum has improved, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort and earnings quality is fragile.
Valuation is broadly aligned with the evidence: FR trades at a slight premium to peers, while the expectations gap is modestly negative, meaning expectations appear somewhat ahead of the evidence. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility rather than a combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulent conditions.
Near-term operating delivery is mixed but positive: cash same-store NOI growth was 5.6% in 2026-Q3, below 7.1% for full-year 2025, while revenue increased from 2025-Q4 to 2026-Q3 and recent leasing and acquisition activity supported growth. The dividend has increased, but its status is watch; earnings surprises have been erratic, despite an in-line report on 2026-10-21 and a guidance raise on 2026-07-22.
A key swing factor is whether FR sustains operating growth and avoids reversing its recent guidance raise, which would also damage management credibility. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while weakness among sector bellwethers could remove that support.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on steady leasing and cash operating growth, alongside credible guidance and a supportive sector backdrop. The evidence is mixed, so the multi-year view remains under watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in First Industrial Realty Trust's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or grow operating income near $150M next quarter. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $100M next year |
Operating income: $87.136M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or grow operating income near $150M next quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 202687,136,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth through property acquisitions | A primary condition in First Industrial Realty Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >=9% YoY revenue growth. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 6% next year | Revenue growth: 8.65% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=9% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 22, 20268.645208 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.89 → $1.89 · observed estimates
$0.85B → $0.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.89 | $847,839,700 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.89 | $846,565,560 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.89 | $846,565,560 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.89 | $843,739,700 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.89 | $843,739,700 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.88 | $843,184,380 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.91 | $843,669,700 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.88 | $843,184,380 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.91 | $843,669,700 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.88 | $842,324,380 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.88 | $842,324,380 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.88 | $842,324,380 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.88 | $842,324,380 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.91 | $843,669,700 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.94 | $843,028,556 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.86 | $841,281,940 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.86 | $841,281,940 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.86 | $841,281,940 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.86 | $841,281,940 | 4 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.94 | $843,028,556 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.94 | $843,028,556 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.94 | $843,028,556 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.94 | $843,028,556 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.94 | $843,028,556 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.94 | $843,028,556 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.94 | $843,028,556 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.94 | $843,028,556 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.92 | $839,795,600 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.95 | $842,181,556 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.95 | $842,181,556 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.95 | $842,181,556 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.95 | $842,181,556 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.95 | $842,181,556 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.95 | $842,181,556 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.95 | $842,181,556 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.95 | $842,181,556 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.93 | $839,435,300 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.91 | $838,932,832 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.91 | $837,660,105 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.91 | $836,868,014 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.91 | $836,686,196 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.91 | $836,686,196 | 4 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.91 | $836,686,196 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.91 | $836,686,196 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.89 | $837,929,378 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.89 | $837,929,378 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.89 | $837,929,378 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.88 | $839,002,105 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.88 | $838,473,923 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.88 | $838,473,923 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.89 | $835,421,315 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.89 | $835,661,315 | 5 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.