First Industrial Realty Trust (FR)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-09-04
$61.85+0.23%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · FR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
FR — officer change
Dated 2026-08-18
Director — Frank E. Schmitz: The filing discloses the election of a new director to fill a vacancy created by a board expansion and their subsequent committee assignments, which is a routine governance event.
Why it matters: High or growing occupancy rates show strong demand. It also means good property management.
Supportive ifIn-service occupancy rates exceed 94.5% at the end of Q3.
Worry ifIn-service occupancy rates drop below 94.0% at the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows good financial health. This attracts investors.
Supportive ifLook for news about a dividend increase or steady dividend payments.
Worry ifNews of a dividend cut or suspension is a concern.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means the company is controlling costs. It is also making more money.
Supportive ifOperating income grows to at least $160M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $150M in Q2.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well the company is buying new properties. This affects overall earnings.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is over 10% compared to last year. This shows strong success in getting new customers.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is less than 5% year over year, suggesting acquisition struggles.
Why it matters: News of share buybacks shows that management trusts the company's value.
Watch forManagement says they are buying back shares in the $250 million program.
Also watch forNo updates or execution of the share repurchase program by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Higher FFO guidance shows strong operations and good chances for growth.
Supportive ifFFO guidance for 2026 increases by more than $0.02 at the midpoint.
Worry ifFFO guidance for 2026 remains unchanged or decreases.
Why it matters: This sale will confirm the strength of the real estate market and cash flow for First Industrial.
Supportive ifThe 100-acre land sale closes for $131 million as expected.
Worry ifThe sale does not close or the price is significantly lower than $131 million.
Why it matters: A rise in sector growth may mean better results for First Industrial.
Watch forSector revenue growth speeds up to over 5% compared to last year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can drive revenue growth and enhance the portfolio. A lack of new deals may signal slower growth.
Supportive ifA new property purchase over $50 million has been announced.
Worry ifNo big property purchases announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong rental rate growth indicates high demand for logistics properties. It supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifCash rental rates growth in Q3 exceeds 39% year over year.
Worry ifCash rental rates growth in Q3 falls below 32% year over year.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows the company wants to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases to at least $0.52 in Q2.
Worry ifNo increase in dividend per share, remaining at $0.50 or lower.
Why it matters: This would indicate a slowdown in revenue growth, which could impact future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 cash same store NOI growth reported below 5.25%.
Less concerning ifQ3 cash same store NOI growth reported above 6.25%.
Why it matters: Less leasing activity may mean lower demand. This can affect future revenue growth.
Worry ifTotal new lease signings reported below 500,000 square feet in Q3.
Less concerning ifTotal new lease signings reported above 600,000 square feet in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$80 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $183 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,047 loss on $10,000 · 10.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.