GE Vernova (GEV)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$770.51-7.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 39 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GEV — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-27
CFO — Kenneth Parks: The CFO is retiring with a named external successor (Claire McDonough) already identified and joining as an advisor, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: A larger backlog would show that orders keep outpacing work shipped. Management said it expects backlog above $200 billion in Q4.
Supportive ifGE Vernova reports total backlog above $200 billion in Q4 2026.
Worry ifQ4 backlog is $200 billion or less, or falls from the Q3 level of $197 billion.
Why it matters: Free cash flow guidance rose from $6.5-$7.5 billion in Q1 to $16-$17 billion in Q3. The year-end result tests that sharp rise.
Supportive ifReported 2026 free cash flow is at least $16 billion, within or above the latest $16-$17 billion guide.
Worry ifReported free cash flow is below $16 billion, or the company cuts its latest guide before year-end.
Why it matters: This tests whether GE Vernova can keep adding gas contracts as demand grows. The year-end goal rose from 110 GW to 130 GW during 2026.
Supportive ifBy year-end 2026, gas equipment backlog and slot reservation agreements reach at least 130 GW.
Worry ifThe year-end total stays below 130 GW, or management cuts the target.
Why it matters: The $9 billion deal would add high-voltage grid equipment to Electrification. A delay or failed approval would push back that plan.
Watch forThe Trench Group acquisition closes by late 2027, after it gets the required approvals.
Also watch forThe deal does not close by late 2027, or required approvals are denied.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$165 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $556 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,067 loss on $10,000 · 30.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.