GE Vernova (GEV)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$941.95+0.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GEV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 13.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
GEV — CFO transition
Dated 2026-08-27
CFO — Kenneth Parks: The CFO is retiring with a named external successor (Claire McDonough) already identified and joining as an advisor, indicating an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong future revenue. It also shows demand for products.
Supportive ifBacklog was over $163 billion, showing strong demand.
Worry ifBacklog was below $163 billion, showing weaker future demand.
Why it matters: Reaching this margin shows good cost management. It also means better operations.
Supportive ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin will be 12% to 14% in 2026.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin will be under 12% in 2026.
Why it matters: A decline in Wind segment revenue would confirm ongoing challenges in this area. It could impact overall growth and profitability.
Worry ifWind segment revenue declines low-double digits in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifWind segment revenue stabilizes or grows in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher orders would signal continued strong demand in the Power segment. This would support the growth narrative for GE Vernova.
Supportive ifPower segment orders exceed $16.7 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifPower segment orders fall below $16.7 billion in Q3 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $476 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,461 loss on $10,000 · 24.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Raising the free cash flow guidance shows strong cash generation. It also shows good capital use. This can boost investor confidence in the company's financial health.
Supportive ifManagement raises free cash flow guidance above $12.5 billion for 2026.
Worry ifManagement maintains or lowers free cash flow guidance below $11.5 billion.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows GE Vernova can grow gas turbine capacity. It proves the company can handle more demand in Power.
Supportive ifGE Vernova delivers 20 GW of gas turbine output in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGas turbine output falls short of 20 GW in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance shows strong demand and growth. This can help stock sentiment.
Supportive ifManagement says revenue will be higher in 2026.
Worry ifManagement keeps revenue guidance the same or lowers it for 2026.
Why it matters: Higher margins mean better profits and efficiency. These are important for long-term success.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is above 12% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 12% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this backlog target shows strong demand for GE Vernova's gas power gear.
Supportive ifBacklog reaches or exceeds 110 GW by December 2026.
Worry ifBacklog remains below 100 GW by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong demand for gas power equipment and confirms growth plans.
Supportive ifGas turbine backlog reaches 125 GW or more by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifGas turbine backlog remains below 125 GW by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow shows good capital management. It helps support growth plans.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $11.5 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $11.5 billion in Q3 2026.