Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GE Vernova (GEV)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$770.51-7.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
24.51 → 25.75 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 20 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 20 to 20; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GEV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow at least $6.5 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow rises to $6.5-$7.5 billion. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $6.5 billion in FY26 | Free cash flow: $5.41B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.5 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20265,410,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
GEV is a growth-oriented industrial business whose long-term thesis depends on expanding power and electrification capacity and turning demand into revenue and cash flow. The thesis is intact after strong recent results, but confidence is medium and risk remains elevated.
GEV trades at a durable premium versus peers, and the valuation assessment is neutral. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may run ahead of the evidence; however, the priced-in signal is classified as justified, with low fragility.
In the near term, third-quarter revenue was $12.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.4%, and free cash flow was $5.4 billion. Management raised full-year free cash flow guidance to $16 billion to $17 billion, while gas equipment backlog and slot reservations increased from 116 to 122 GW. Near-term risk remains elevated: industry peers have recently missed more often, and a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on GEV expanding Power and Electrification and converting gas turbine reservations and contracts into shipments, revenue, and cash flow. Near-term sector signals also matter: continued earnings strength at PH, EMR, and TT could support industrial momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken that backdrop. A guidance cut from GEV would challenge the current thesis.
For the next 1 to 3 years, the business evidence supports an intact thesis, but the premium valuation, mixed execution status, and sector headwind leave meaningful uncertainty. The key test is whether GEV sustains delivery and cash generation without cutting guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company shows stable management and steady execution. |
| Intact |
| Major CEO or executive departures or guidance cuts occur |
Guidance raised; no major exec departures GEV raised 2026 revenue guidance to $46.5B-$47.5B and FCF to $16B-$17B following a Q3 beat and Trench acquisition. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Adjusted EBITDA margin at least 12% in FY26 | A primary condition in GE Vernova's published investment case. The stated target is >= 12%. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 12% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $44.5 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in GE Vernova's published investment case. The stated target is >= $44.5 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $44.5 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $12.642B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $44.5 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 202612,642,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$24.76 → $25.75 · observed estimates
$52.66B → $53.57B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $24.76 | $52,661,412,432 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-07-25 | $24.76 | $52,661,412,432 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-07-26 | $24.88 | $52,734,697,068 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-07-27 | $24.85 | $52,498,702,310 | 28 / 36 |
| 2026-07-28 | $24.88 | $52,734,697,068 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-07-29 | $24.89 | $52,798,486,888 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-07-30 | $24.86 | $52,489,966,940 | 28 / 36 |
| 2026-07-31 | $24.86 | $52,489,966,940 | 28 / 36 |
| 2026-08-01 | $24.89 | $52,798,486,888 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-02 | $24.85 | $52,485,908,610 | 28 / 36 |
| 2026-08-03 | $24.85 | $52,485,908,610 | 28 / 36 |
| 2026-08-04 | $24.89 | $52,798,486,888 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-05 | $24.89 | $52,798,486,888 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-06 | $24.89 | $52,798,486,888 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-07 | $24.81 | $52,875,467,766 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-08 | $24.89 | $52,507,072,500 | 28 / 36 |
| 2026-08-09 | $24.89 | $52,507,072,500 | 28 / 36 |
| 2026-08-10 | $24.81 | $52,875,467,766 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-12 | $24.90 | $52,519,021,660 | 28 / 36 |
| 2026-08-13 | $24.81 | $52,875,467,766 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-14 | $24.81 | $52,875,467,766 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-15 | $24.81 | $52,875,467,766 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-16 | $24.81 | $52,875,467,766 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-17 | $24.81 | $52,875,467,766 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-18 | $24.81 | $52,875,467,766 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-19 | $24.81 | $52,875,467,766 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-20 | $24.93 | $53,047,451,638 | 23 / 27 |
| 2026-08-21 | $24.93 | $53,056,173,649 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-22 | $24.93 | $53,056,173,649 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-23 | $24.89 | $53,075,694,062 | 22 / 27 |
| 2026-08-24 | $24.89 | $53,075,694,062 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-25 | $24.75 | $53,075,694,062 | 21 / 27 |
| 2026-08-26 | $24.70 | $53,111,342,547 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-27 | $24.70 | $53,111,342,547 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-28 | $24.70 | $53,111,342,547 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-29 | $24.70 | $53,087,703,252 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-30 | $24.70 | $53,087,703,252 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-31 | $24.70 | $53,087,703,252 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-01 | $24.70 | $53,087,703,252 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-02 | $24.70 | $53,087,703,252 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-03 | $24.70 | $53,062,626,076 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-04 | $24.70 | $53,062,626,076 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-05 | $24.70 | $53,062,626,076 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-06 | $24.70 | $53,062,626,076 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-07 | $24.70 | $53,062,626,076 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-08 | $24.70 | $53,062,626,076 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-09 | $24.69 | $53,062,626,076 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-10 | $24.69 | $53,062,626,076 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-11 | $24.69 | $53,062,626,076 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-12 | $24.71 | $53,075,216,701 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-13 | $24.71 | $53,075,216,701 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-14 | $24.71 | $53,075,216,701 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-15 | $24.52 | $52,993,422,255 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-16 | $24.53 | $52,990,694,982 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-17 | $24.53 | $52,990,694,982 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-18 | $24.53 | $52,990,694,982 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-19 | $24.53 | $52,990,694,982 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-20 | $24.53 | $52,990,695,322 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-21 | $24.53 | $52,990,695,322 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-22 | $24.53 | $52,990,695,322 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-23 | $24.54 | $52,990,695,322 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-24 | $24.54 | $52,990,695,322 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-25 | $24.54 | $52,990,695,322 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-26 | $24.54 | $52,990,695,322 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-27 | $24.54 | $52,990,695,322 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-28 | $24.54 | $52,990,695,322 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-29 | $24.54 | $52,990,695,322 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-09-30 | $24.56 | $52,990,695,322 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-01 | $24.51 | $53,021,858,111 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-02 | $24.51 | $53,069,100,535 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-03 | $24.51 | $53,069,100,535 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-04 | $24.51 | $53,069,100,535 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-05 | $24.51 | $53,069,100,535 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-06 | $24.51 | $53,069,100,535 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-07 | $24.51 | $53,069,091,180 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-08 | $24.51 | $53,069,091,180 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-09 | $24.51 | $53,069,091,180 | 19 / 26 |
| 2026-10-10 | $24.49 | $53,074,403,566 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-10-11 | $24.49 | $53,074,403,566 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-10-12 | $24.49 | $53,074,403,566 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-10-13 | $24.49 | $53,074,403,566 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-10-14 | $24.43 | $53,107,380,245 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-10-15 | $24.43 | $53,107,471,154 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-16 | $24.43 | $53,107,471,154 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-17 | $24.43 | $53,107,471,154 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-18 | $24.43 | $53,107,471,154 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-19 | $24.43 | $53,107,471,154 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-20 | $24.43 | $53,107,471,154 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-21 | $24.43 | $53,107,471,154 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-22 | $24.43 | $53,108,137,821 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-23 | $24.43 | $53,108,140,851 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-24 | $24.43 | $53,108,140,851 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-25 | $24.43 | $53,108,140,851 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-26 | $24.43 | $53,108,140,851 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-27 | $24.43 | $53,108,140,851 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-28 | $24.49 | $53,108,140,851 | 20 / 26 |
| 2026-10-29 | $24.98 | $53,383,693,113 | 20 / 25 |
| 2026-10-30 | $25.31 | $53,589,457,320 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-10-31 | $25.70 | $53,679,022,174 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-11-01 | $25.70 | $53,679,022,174 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-11-02 | $25.70 | $53,679,022,174 | 19 / 24 |
| 2026-11-03 | $25.73 | $53,572,146,645 | 20 / 24 |
| 2026-11-04 | $25.75 | $53,572,146,645 | 20 / 24 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 32 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 13 recorded
1 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.