Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Generac (GNRC)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$172.33-8.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.68 → 13.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GNRC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 18.5 to 19.5% | A primary condition in Generac's published investment case. The stated target is >=18.5% adjusted EBITDA margin. | Improving | Adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 17% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA margin, before deducting for non-controlling interests, is now expected to be approximately 20.0 to 21.0%, reflecting an approximate 1.5% impact from tariff refunds for the full year 2026.” “Adjusted EBITDA margin, before deducting for non-controlling interests, is now expected to be approximately 18.5 to 19.5%, an increase from the previous guidance range of 18.0 to 19.0%.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented industrial business with a multi-year view tied to generator demand, especially from data centers. The thesis is intact: recent financial performance is strong and management is delivering on key growth priorities, though risk is elevated.
The evidence labels GNRC cheap versus peers, while the overall priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is negative, so expectations appear demanding relative to the valuation model, even as recent results support the business case.
Near term, the latest quarter showed 16% sales growth, a higher adjusted EBITDA margin, and management maintained its full-year growth outlook. Data center sales and backlog support the multi-year growth case, but margin gains partly reflect favorable price-cost effects, and the Industrials sector backdrop is a headwind.
The multi-year case depends on GNRC converting data center commitments into sales while expanding production capacity and maintaining growth. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the thesis, while continued strength or weakness among industrial bellwethers could change the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GNRC’s long-term thesis rests on strong execution in data center generators and sustained sales growth, balanced against elevated risk and sector headwinds. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net sales growth at mid-to-high teens percent | A primary condition in Generac's published investment case. The stated target is >=15% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 12% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 16.19% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=15% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202616.191099 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Completion of strategic acquisitions to enhance market position | The company is completing strategic acquisitions to strengthen its market. | Intact | Failure to complete announced acquisitions by end of FY26 | M&A activity confirmed (Amazon deal) vs FY26 completion target Amazon warrant deal signed Sept 2026; Q3 earnings beat; data center backlog $4.5B. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.20 → $13.97 · observed estimates
$5.67B → $6.88B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.20 | $5,669,729,499 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.31 | $5,665,997,860 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.31 | $5,665,997,860 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.31 | $5,666,018,910 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.31 | $5,666,018,910 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.22 | $5,683,377,860 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.31 | $5,681,424,180 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.62 | $5,886,702,140 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.55 | $5,900,047,799 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.68 | $5,926,281,090 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.61 | $5,938,047,799 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.68 | $5,926,281,090 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.73 | $5,949,671,530 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.61 | $5,938,047,799 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.66 | $5,962,737,707 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.82 | $5,967,097,850 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.82 | $5,967,097,850 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.66 | $5,962,737,707 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.66 | $5,962,737,707 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.66 | $5,962,737,707 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.66 | $5,962,737,707 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.66 | $5,962,737,707 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.66 | $5,962,737,707 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.66 | $5,962,737,707 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.66 | $5,962,737,707 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.66 | $5,962,737,707 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.76 | $5,981,108,504 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.02 | $6,126,353,471 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.30 | $6,257,567,887 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.30 | $6,257,567,887 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.30 | $6,257,567,887 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.35 | $6,287,456,776 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.35 | $6,287,456,776 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.35 | $6,287,470,415 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.35 | $6,287,470,415 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.35 | $6,287,470,415 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.38 | $6,303,057,860 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.38 | $6,303,057,860 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.38 | $6,303,057,860 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.48 | $6,365,768,544 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.49 | $6,373,540,766 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.49 | $6,373,540,766 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.49 | $6,373,540,766 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.49 | $6,373,539,088 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.49 | $6,373,539,088 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.68 | $6,417,916,866 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.77 | $6,450,972,421 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.77 | $6,450,972,421 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.88 | $6,519,437,031 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.88 | $6,519,437,031 | 15 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.88 | $6,519,437,031 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.88 | $6,519,437,031 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.88 | $6,519,447,557 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.88 | $6,519,447,557 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.88 | $6,519,447,557 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.88 | $6,519,447,557 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.88 | $6,519,447,557 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.88 | $6,519,447,557 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.88 | $6,519,447,557 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.88 | $6,488,005,755 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.88 | $6,487,996,009 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.88 | $6,487,996,009 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.88 | $6,487,996,009 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.88 | $6,487,996,009 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.88 | $6,519,438,325 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.88 | $6,519,438,325 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.88 | $6,519,438,325 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.88 | $6,517,427,798 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $13.45 | $6,719,818,980 | 14 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $13.93 | $6,858,776,209 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $13.93 | $6,858,776,209 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $13.93 | $6,858,776,209 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $13.93 | $6,858,776,209 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $13.93 | $6,858,776,209 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $13.97 | $6,879,355,156 | 15 / 16 |
| 2026-11-05 | $13.97 | $6,879,355,156 | 15 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 16 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 6 recorded
3 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.