Generac (GNRC)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
$172.33-8.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GNRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 41.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 46 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GNRC — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities The information under
Dated 2026-09-16
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities The information under
Why it matters: Home standby and portable generator shipments lifted residential sales in Q3. A turn back to decline would weaken this growth source.
Watch forResidential sales grow at least 9% year over year. Both home standby and portable generators contribute.
Also watch forResidential sales fall from a year ago. Shipments of both home standby and portable generators also decline.
Why it matters: The new full-year margin guide starts at 20.5%. Lower tariff costs helped the latest quarter, so later results test how lasting the gain is.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin is at least 20.5%.
Worry ifGenerac lowers its full-year adjusted EBITDA margin guide below 20.5%. Or, it reports a lower full-year result.
Why it matters: Generac has a $4.5 billion data center backlog. Amazon deliveries are set to total $2.4 billion in 2027 and 2028.
Supportive ifGenerac says Amazon deliveries for 2027 have started. The 2027 and 2028 supply schedule has no delays.
Worry ifGenerac says Amazon deliveries are delayed or cut. They no longer total $2.4 billion across 2027 and 2028.
Why it matters: Generac kept its 2026 sales growth guide after record third-quarter sales. The year-end result will test that plan.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 net sales growth lands in the mid-to-high teens range.
Worry ifGenerac cuts its full-year sales growth guide below the mid-teens or reports growth below that range.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $644 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,169 loss on $10,000 · 41.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Data center orders have driven strong C&I growth. Continued growth would support the company's main expansion plan.
Supportive ifA later quarter reports C&I sales growth of at least 28% year over year.
Worry ifA later quarter reports C&I sales growth below 20% year over year.