Generac (GNRC)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$187.35+2.37%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GNRC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 25.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 53.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GNRC — officer change
Dated 2026-03-25
The company granted incremental equity awards to existing executives.
Why it matters: Doing well with these deals can help Generac's market position.
Watch forGood news on the integration and performance of Allmand and Enercon.
Also watch forReports of problems or poor performance from either deal.
Why it matters: New deals with big customers can boost revenue in the next few years.
Supportive ifNew global supply deals worth over $1 billion are announced.
Worry ifNo new global supply agreements announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The Enercon acquisition may improve Generac's products and profit margins. This shows growth strategy.
Supportive ifPositive comments about how Enercon fits in and helps sales or margins in future reports.
Worry ifWatch for bad comments or delays in Enercon's integration that hurt profits.
Why it matters: Strong growth in the C&I segment is key to overall sales growth. It shows demand in the data center market.
Supportive ifC&I segment sales growth meets or exceeds 30% year-over-year.
Worry ifC&I segment sales growth falls below 25% year-over-year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $566 loss on $10,000 · 5.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,884 loss on $10,000 · 38.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in margin guidance show better operations and cost control. This affects profit.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA margin guidance is raised to 21% or more.
Also watch forThe adjusted EBITDA margin guidance is now below 20%.
Why it matters: Successful acquisitions can increase capacity and skills. This helps with growth and profit.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new strategic acquisition by the end of Q3.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand for Generac's products in the data center market. This could support future revenue growth.
Supportive ifBacklog for data center products increases beyond $1.6 billion.
Worry ifBacklog growth stagnates or declines from the current $1.6 billion.
Why it matters: A higher EBITDA margin means better cost control. This is important for profit and investors.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 20% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 18% in Q3.
Why it matters: Successful acquisitions can help Generac grow and be stronger in the market.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new acquisition that fits with growth plans.
Also watch forNo new acquisitions announced by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Getting vendor approvals can mean more orders. This can strengthen the backlog and future sales.
Supportive ifManagement says they got approvals from at least two big customers.
Worry ifThere are no updates or delays in vendor approvals.
Why it matters: Approvals from big tech can increase orders and future sales. This shows Generac is strong.
Supportive ifLook for news of approval from at least one big tech customer.
Worry ifNo new approvals announced by the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Strong growth in the C&I segment is key to overall sales growth. It shows demand for data center products.
Supportive ifC&I segment sales growth exceeds 25% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifC&I segment sales growth falls below 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Getting approvals from big customers would help future sales and orders.
Supportive ifMany big customers said yes to their vendor approvals.
Worry ifNo new vendor approvals for data center customers next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow from operations helps with investments and growth.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is over $120 million for two quarters.
Worry ifCash flow from operations drops below $100 million for two quarters.
Why it matters: Finalizing terms with this customer could lead to significant revenue in 2027 and beyond.
Supportive ifThey will announce the final product terms with the second hyperscale customer.
Worry ifTalks fail or take longer than expected.
Why it matters: A drop in EBITDA margin may show problems and hurt profits.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 20% for the full year 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin remains at or above 20% for the full year.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising guidance shows that they believe in future sales and market conditions.
Supportive ifManagement confirms net sales growth guidance in the mid-to-high teens percent range.
Worry ifManagement cuts net sales growth guidance to below 15 percent.