Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Global Payments (GPN)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$94.98-1.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
16.07 → 16.11 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 24 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 22 to 24; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for GPN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Repurchase $500 million in shares in 2026 | The company repurchases $500 million in shares. | Intact | Share repurchases fall significantly short of $500 million in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-dependent payments business, not a proven steady compounder in the current evidence. The multi-year view is on watch: management is on track with its stated growth, margin, and capital-return priorities, while recent financial performance remains weak.
GPN is described as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The evidence also labels what is priced in as justified with low fragility, so it does not point to unusually stretched expectations.
Near term, management’s stated plans remain on track: normalized revenue growth of about 4% to 5% and adjusted operating margin expansion of about 150 basis points in 2026. GPN missed its most recent quarter and has a history of a deep miss, although the stated near-term miss risk is low; continued delivery remains important to the multi-year thesis.
The thesis depends on GPN sustaining revenue growth and margin expansion while following through on its capital-return plan. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while strong results and higher guidance from sector peers such as Visa, Mastercard, and American Express would support the sector backdrop. The evidence also flags rate cuts as a potential headwind for Financials.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, GPN’s long-term thesis has support from on-track management priorities and a valuation described as cheap versus peers, but weak performance and past execution problems leave the business setup uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margin expands by 1.5 points in 2026. |
| Broken |
| Operating margin expansion is less than 1.5 points in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We continue to expect normalized 1 adjusted operating margin expansion of approximately 150 basis points for the full year and to return more than $2 billion of capital to shareholders in 2026.”” “We continue to expect normalized 1 adjusted operating margin expansion of approximately 150 basis points for the full year 2026.”” Delivery assessment Nov 3, 2026 |
Achieve at least 5% net revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Global Payments's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 5% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$16.03 → $16.11 · observed estimates
$13.15B → $13.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $16.03 | $13,147,492,172 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $16.03 | $13,147,492,172 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-26 | $16.03 | $13,140,315,490 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-27 | $16.12 | $13,114,064,340 | 34 / 25 |
| 2026-07-28 | $16.03 | $13,140,315,490 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-07-29 | $16.12 | $13,114,064,340 | 34 / 25 |
| 2026-07-30 | $16.12 | $13,114,064,340 | 34 / 25 |
| 2026-07-31 | $16.12 | $13,114,064,340 | 34 / 25 |
| 2026-08-01 | $16.02 | $13,140,316,494 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-02 | $16.12 | $13,109,124,340 | 34 / 25 |
| 2026-08-03 | $16.12 | $13,109,124,340 | 34 / 25 |
| 2026-08-04 | $16.12 | $13,109,124,340 | 34 / 25 |
| 2026-08-05 | $16.12 | $13,089,643,680 | 33 / 26 |
| 2026-08-06 | $16.01 | $13,135,729,045 | 20 / 20 |
| 2026-08-07 | $15.97 | $13,030,592,578 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-08 | $15.95 | $13,024,347,680 | 34 / 26 |
| 2026-08-09 | $15.95 | $13,024,347,680 | 34 / 26 |
| 2026-08-10 | $15.97 | $13,030,592,578 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-12 | $15.93 | $13,011,408,060 | 34 / 26 |
| 2026-08-13 | $15.97 | $13,030,592,578 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-14 | $15.97 | $13,030,592,578 | 18 / 20 |
| 2026-08-15 | $15.97 | $13,030,592,578 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-16 | $15.97 | $13,030,592,578 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-17 | $15.97 | $13,030,592,578 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-18 | $15.97 | $13,030,592,578 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-19 | $15.97 | $13,030,592,578 | 19 / 20 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.05 | $13,011,156,505 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-21 | $16.05 | $13,011,156,505 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-22 | $16.05 | $13,011,142,616 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-23 | $16.05 | $13,011,142,616 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-24 | $16.05 | $13,011,142,616 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-25 | $16.03 | $13,009,309,617 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-26 | $16.03 | $13,004,884,601 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-27 | $16.03 | $13,004,884,601 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-28 | $16.03 | $13,004,884,601 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-29 | $16.02 | $12,999,706,030 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-30 | $16.02 | $12,999,706,030 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-08-31 | $16.02 | $12,999,706,030 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-01 | $16.02 | $12,999,706,030 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-02 | $16.02 | $12,999,706,030 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-03 | $16.02 | $12,998,170,316 | 21 / 21 |
| 2026-09-04 | $16.02 | $12,998,170,316 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-05 | $16.02 | $12,997,869,912 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-06 | $16.02 | $12,997,869,912 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-07 | $16.02 | $12,997,869,912 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-08 | $16.02 | $12,997,869,912 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-09 | $16.02 | $12,997,869,912 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-10 | $16.02 | $12,997,869,912 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-11 | $16.02 | $12,997,834,198 | 20 / 21 |
| 2026-09-12 | $16.02 | $13,000,184,743 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-13 | $16.02 | $13,000,184,743 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-14 | $16.02 | $13,000,184,742 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-15 | $16.05 | $13,000,184,742 | 21 / 22 |
| 2026-09-16 | $16.04 | $13,000,184,742 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-17 | $16.04 | $13,000,184,742 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-18 | $16.04 | $13,000,184,742 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-19 | $16.04 | $13,000,184,742 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-20 | $16.04 | $13,000,184,742 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-21 | $16.04 | $13,000,184,742 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-22 | $16.04 | $13,000,184,742 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-23 | $16.04 | $13,000,184,742 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-24 | $16.04 | $12,998,226,846 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-25 | $16.04 | $12,998,226,846 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-26 | $16.07 | $13,001,485,951 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-27 | $16.07 | $13,001,485,951 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-28 | $16.07 | $13,001,485,951 | 21 / 23 |
| 2026-09-29 | $16.07 | $13,001,479,284 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-09-30 | $16.07 | $13,001,479,284 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-01 | $16.07 | $13,001,479,284 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-02 | $16.07 | $13,001,479,284 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-03 | $16.07 | $13,001,479,284 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-04 | $16.07 | $13,001,479,284 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-05 | $16.07 | $13,001,479,284 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-06 | $16.07 | $13,001,478,704 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-07 | $16.07 | $13,001,478,704 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-08 | $16.07 | $13,001,478,704 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-09 | $16.09 | $13,002,992,037 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-10 | $16.09 | $13,002,998,704 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-11 | $16.09 | $13,002,998,704 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-12 | $16.09 | $13,002,999,284 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-13 | $16.09 | $13,002,999,284 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-14 | $16.10 | $13,002,973,741 | 22 / 23 |
| 2026-10-15 | $16.10 | $13,002,973,741 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-16 | $16.10 | $13,005,526,357 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-17 | $16.10 | $13,005,526,357 | 23 / 23 |
| 2026-10-18 | $16.10 | $13,005,527,315 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-19 | $16.10 | $13,005,527,315 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-20 | $16.10 | $13,005,527,315 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-21 | $16.11 | $13,003,637,357 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-22 | $16.11 | $13,003,443,809 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-23 | $16.11 | $13,003,443,809 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-24 | $16.11 | $13,003,443,809 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-25 | $16.11 | $12,999,172,067 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-26 | $16.11 | $12,999,162,946 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-27 | $16.11 | $12,999,162,946 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-28 | $16.11 | $12,998,130,688 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-29 | $16.11 | $12,998,130,688 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.11 | $12,998,130,688 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-10-31 | $16.11 | $12,998,130,688 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-11-01 | $16.11 | $12,998,130,188 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-11-02 | $16.11 | $12,998,130,188 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-11-03 | $16.11 | $12,998,323,737 | 24 / 23 |
| 2026-11-04 | $16.11 | $12,998,323,737 | 24 / 23 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 18 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.