Global Payments (GPN)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$92.54+0.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Credit ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · GPN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -27.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 20.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
GPN — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 5, 2026, Global Payments Inc. (the "Company" or "Global Payments") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K (this "Report") and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company is also furnishing certain supplemental non-GAAP financial information set forth in Exhibit 99.2 to this Report. On Janu…
Why it matters: Finishing this buyback shows trust in the company's finances. It can help the share price.
Supportive ifThe company finishes the $500 million share buyback program as planned.
Worry ifThe company delays or cancels the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: This margin growth shows the company can control costs. It shows how well Global Payments runs its business.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating margin expands by 150 basis points or more in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted operating margin fails to expand or contracts in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Progress on the $500 million buyback can signal confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifCompletion of the $500 million share buyback by the end of Q3.
Worry ifNo big buyback activity reported by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Giving money back to shareholders shows confidence in cash flow. It shows management cares about shareholder value.
Supportive ifGlobal Payments gives back over $2 billion to shareholders by the end of 2026.
Worry ifCapital returned to shareholders falls short of $2 billion by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$151 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $357 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,925 loss on $10,000 · 29.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows the company is growing its main business. It shows market demand.
Supportive ifNormalized adjusted net revenue growth is 4% or higher in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNormalized adjusted net revenue growth is below 4% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This goal shows Global Payments is getting more efficient. It shows good management.
Supportive ifThe operating margin reaches 42.0% or higher in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted operating margin fails to reach 40.0% in Q3 2026.