HCA Healthcare (HCA)
NYSEHealth CareMedical Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-07-07
$423.10+1.45%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track HCA free→HCA Healthcare grows revenue about 5% yearly, aiming for $77.25 billion in 2026. It keeps buying back shares with a $10 billion program and pays rising dividends, now $0.78 per share. The company manages capital spending around $5.25 billion. These actions support steady profit and cash flow.
Revenue growth could slow if volumes drop or costs rise. Management changes and volatile capital allocation may hurt execution. The recent selloff shows market doubts about sustaining growth and margins.
The market prices HCA about 50% below our fair value near $840, reflecting cautious views despite 5% revenue growth expected. Our fair value is well above the Street median, showing a valuation gap we see as justified but risky.
Breaks if: Buybacks cease or fall materially below program pace
Implement share repurchase program authorized for up to $10 billion with ongoing repurchases and dividend payments.
Stated as a priority in 5 of last 6 quarters. The Company repurchased shares consistently each quarter, including 3.157 million shares at $1.571 billion in 2026-Q1 and 5.432 million shares at $2.558 billion in 2025-Q4. The Board authorized a $10 billion buyback program, and management is delivering ongoing repurchases aligned with this commitment.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“During the first quarter of 2026, the Company repurchased 3.157 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $1.571 billion.”
“During the fourth quarter of 2025, the Company repurchased 5.432 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $2.558 billion.”
“During the third quarter of 2025, the Company repurchased 6.514 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $2.498 billion.”
“During the second quarter of 2025, the Company repurchased 7.031 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $2.505 billion.”
“During the first quarter of 2025, the Company repurchased 7.762 million shares of its common stock at a cost of $2.506 billion.”
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $5.5B or falls below $5.0B materially
Continue disciplined capital expenditures estimated between $5.0B and $5.5B for 2026, excluding acquisitions.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled $1.119 billion in 2026-Q1 and have been consistently estimated around $5.0 billion to $5.5 billion annually. Management has maintained disciplined capital allocation with no significant deviation, indicating delivery consistent with stated priorities.
“Capital expenditures for 2026, excluding acquisitions, are estimated to range between $5.0 billion and $5.5 billion.”
“Capital expenditures for 2025, excluding acquisitions, are estimated to be approximately $5.0 billion.”
“Capital expenditures for 2025, excluding acquisitions, are estimated to be approximately $5.0 billion.”
“Capital expenditures for 2025, excluding acquisitions, are estimated to be approximately $5.0 billion.”
“Capital expenditures for 2025, excluding acquisitions, are estimated to be approximately $5.0 billion.”
“Capital expenditures for 2024, excluding acquisitions, are estimated to be approximately $5.0 billion.”
Breaks if: Dividend falls below $0.78 per share quarterly
Maintain quarterly cash dividend payments, recently declared at $0.78 per share for 2026.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. The Board declared quarterly dividends consistently, increasing from $0.72 per share in 2025-Q1 to $0.78 per share in 2026-Q1. Dividend payments have been maintained and increased, reflecting delivery on this capital allocation priority.
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.78 per share on the Company’s common stock.”
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.78 per share on the Company’s common stock.”
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share on the Company’s common stock.”
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share on the Company’s common stock.”
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share on the Company’s common stock.”
“The Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.72 per share on the Company’s common stock.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $76.5B in FY26
Maintain and deliver on 2026 revenue guidance range of $76.5B to $80B with stable operating environment and volume growth assumptions.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $18.321 billion in 2025-Q1 to $19.109 billion in 2026-Q1 (+4.3%). The Company reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance range of $76.5 billion to $80 billion each quarter, reflecting stable operating environment and volume growth assumptions. The trajectory is delivering consistent with management's stated guidance.
“The Company is reaffirming its 2026 estimated guidance ranges previously issued on January 27, 2026.”
“Today, the Company is reaffirming its 2026 estimated guidance ranges previously issued on January 27, 2026.”
“Today, the Company issued the following estimated guidance for 2026: Revenues $76.5 to $80.0 billion.”
“The Company is updating its 2025 estimated guidance ranges previously issued on January 24, 2025.”
“The Company reaffirmed its 2025 estimated guidance ranges issued on January 24, 2025.”
“The Company issued 2025 estimated guidance: Revenues $72.8 to $75.8 billion.”