Home Depot (The) (HD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$321.05+0.94%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HD — President transition
Dated 2026-08-12
CEO — Edward P. Decker: The CEO is taking a temporary medical leave with designated interim successors, which is not a permanent departure or resignation.
Why it matters: A drop below median growth in the consumer discretionary sector could signal a broader slowdown. This may impact Home Depot's performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains at or above its median.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending could signal aggressive expansion or strain on cash flow.
Worry ifCapital spending is over 2.5% of total sales.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is at or below 2.5% of total sales.
Why it matters: His return could help steady leadership and plans. Uncertainty may hurt investor trust.
Supportive ifTed Decker returns to his role as CEO.
Worry ifLong absence or a permanent change in leadership.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, it may show rising costs or problems, hurting profits.
Worry ifThe operating margin is less than 12.4%.
Less concerning ifOperating margin is at or above 12.4%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$109 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $251 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,879 loss on $10,000 · 28.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This number shows if demand is weakening or staying stable. A drop could signal trouble.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth is less than 1.3%.
Less concerning ifQ3 comparable sales growth is reported at 1.3% or higher.
Why it matters: Sales growth below this level may show weak demand and affect future plans.
Worry ifTotal sales growth reported below 2.5%.
Less concerning ifTotal sales growth reported at or above 2.5%.
Why it matters: A cut in guidance would signal deeper issues in demand.
Worry ifManagement cuts total sales growth guidance to under 2.5%.
Less concerning ifGuidance remains at 2.5% to 4.5% or is raised.