Home Depot (The) (HD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-11-05
$349.94-1.55%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 34.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 1 industry peers
HD — President transition
Dated 2026-08-12
CEO — Edward P. Decker: The CEO is taking a temporary medical leave with designated interim successors, which is not a permanent departure or resignation.
Why it matters: Home Depot's sales depend in part on consumer demand. The sector read says revenue is shrinking, with a possible shift ahead.
Watch forThe November 17 U.S. retail sales report shows year-over-year growth.
Also watch forThe November 17 U.S. retail sales report shows a year-over-year decline.
Why it matters: Q2 comparable sales grew 1.7%, near the top of the full-year range. A higher Q3 result would point to stronger demand.
Supportive ifOn November 17, Q3 comparable sales growth is above 2.0%.
Worry ifOn November 17, Q3 comparable sales growth is flat or negative.
Why it matters: Home Depot kept its full-year adjusted EPS growth range at flat to 4.0%. Q3 results will test that plan.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EPS and updated full-year guidance point to growth above 4.0% from fiscal 2025.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EPS and updated full-year guidance point to a decline from fiscal 2025.
Why it matters: Ted Decker took a temporary medical leave. A clear return date would ease questions about leadership plans.
Supportive ifHome Depot names a return date for Decker within the next few months.
Worry ifHome Depot says Decker's leave will last beyond the stated few-month window.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $261 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,761 loss on $10,000 · 27.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.