Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp
Home Depot (The) (HD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$355.44+6.53%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome ImprovementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
15.97 → 15.91 EPS · FY ending Feb 1, 2028 · 21 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain market leadership amid competitor exits | Recent competitor exits and a new housing bill support growth. | Intact | Significant new competitor gains market share or Home Depot loses share | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-02-01 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 17, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HD is a durable, established business with a long-term thesis based on continued sales growth and operating discipline. The thesis is intact, recent momentum improved, and management has reaffirmed its main fiscal 2026 goals.
HD trades at a premium to peers, which appears tied to expectations of durable performance. The expectations gap is notable, but confidence in the valuation model is low and the evidence does not show clear fragility in what is priced in.
Near term, management’s sales-growth and margin goals are on track, and the latest earnings event was positive. The evidence on capital spending is mixed, while the risk of a near-term earnings miss is rated low; a guidance cut or continued weakness among industry peers would be a concern.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on management maintaining its sales-growth guidance and sustaining margins. Peer results are another signal: continued earnings strength could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the next 1 to 3 years, HD’s long-term thesis remains intact, supported by current execution but tempered by a peer premium and uncertainty about the consumer-sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Home Depot (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is 12.4% to 12.6%. |
| Intact |
| Operating margin falls below 12.4% in FY26 |
Operating margin: 14.29% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 12.4% to 12.6%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 24, 202614.289296 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve revenue growth of 2.5% to 4.5% in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Home Depot (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is 2.5% to 4.5% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 2.5% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 5.71% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 2.5% to 4.5% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 24, 20265.707092 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$16.08 → $15.91 · observed estimates
$177.45B → $177.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $16.08 | $177,451,174,389 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-07-25 | $16.08 | $177,451,174,389 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-07-26 | $16.08 | $177,451,174,389 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-07-27 | $16.08 | $177,451,174,389 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-07-28 | $16.08 | $177,451,174,389 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-07-29 | $16.08 | $177,451,174,389 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-07-30 | $16.08 | $177,451,174,389 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-07-31 | $16.08 | $177,451,174,389 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-01 | $16.08 | $177,451,174,389 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-02 | $16.08 | $177,451,174,389 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-03 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-04 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-05 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-06 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-07 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-08 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-09 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-10 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-12 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-13 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-14 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-15 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-16 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-17 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-18 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-19 | $16.07 | $177,303,493,553 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-20 | $16.02 | $177,518,790,975 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-21 | $16.01 | $177,548,532,262 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-22 | $16.01 | $177,548,532,262 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-23 | $16.00 | $177,548,532,262 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-24 | $16.00 | $177,548,532,262 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-25 | $16.00 | $177,548,532,262 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-26 | $16.00 | $177,561,629,423 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-27 | $16.00 | $177,561,629,423 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-28 | $16.00 | $177,561,629,423 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.99 | $177,544,791,537 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.97 | $177,497,199,348 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.97 | $177,497,199,348 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.97 | $177,497,199,348 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-02 | $15.97 | $177,497,199,348 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-03 | $15.97 | $177,497,199,348 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-04 | $15.97 | $177,497,199,348 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-05 | $15.98 | $177,497,188,172 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-06 | $15.98 | $177,497,188,172 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-07 | $15.98 | $177,497,188,172 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-08 | $15.98 | $177,497,188,172 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-09 | $15.98 | $177,562,681,899 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-10 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-11 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-12 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-13 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-14 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-15 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-16 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-17 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-18 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-19 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-20 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-21 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-22 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-23 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-24 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-25 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-26 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-27 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-28 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-29 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-09-30 | $15.97 | $177,503,615,233 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-01 | $15.97 | $177,543,195,068 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-02 | $15.97 | $177,463,186,566 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-03 | $15.97 | $177,463,186,566 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-04 | $15.97 | $177,463,186,566 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-05 | $15.97 | $177,463,186,566 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-06 | $15.97 | $177,463,186,566 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-07 | $15.95 | $177,458,919,899 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-08 | $15.95 | $177,458,919,899 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-09 | $15.95 | $177,458,919,899 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-10 | $15.95 | $177,458,919,899 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-11 | $15.95 | $177,458,919,899 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-12 | $15.95 | $177,458,919,899 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-13 | $15.95 | $177,458,919,899 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-14 | $15.95 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-15 | $15.93 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-16 | $15.93 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-17 | $15.93 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-18 | $15.93 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-19 | $15.93 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-20 | $15.93 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-21 | $15.93 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-22 | $15.93 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-23 | $15.93 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-24 | $15.93 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-25 | $15.93 | $177,458,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-26 | $15.91 | $177,368,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-27 | $15.91 | $177,368,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-28 | $15.91 | $177,368,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-29 | $15.91 | $177,368,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-30 | $15.91 | $177,368,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-10-31 | $15.91 | $177,368,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-11-01 | $15.91 | $177,368,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-11-02 | $15.91 | $177,368,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-11-03 | $15.91 | $177,368,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
| 2026-11-04 | $15.91 | $177,368,936,439 | 21 / 26 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 22 Buy / Strong Buy · 14 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.