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HD

Home Depot (The)

NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome Improvement RetailSnapshot 2026-05-08

$317.45-1.61%
Close 2026-05-08 · 1-day change
The bottom line

As of May 8, 2026, HD has a composite score of 14.0 and a signal label of "mild favorable." This score is influenced by a medium confidence level of 79.5 and is driven by macro factors such as growth, rates, inflation, and labor. The analysis is provisional, indicating that the information may be subject to change.

Composite +14as of 2026-05-08

Price

Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.

Close 2026-05-08
Daily closes. Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event

Factor signals

Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.

L1

Thesis

is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?
F1 · Recent financial performance
neutral
Mid-cohort
Why this rank
  • Direction share
    1.00
  • Slope (norm)
    -0.10
  • Bonus
    0.00
Operating income, last 4 quarters ($M)
5133655553533849
F2 · Value
neutral
Mid-cohort by earnings yield
Why this rank
Price
$317.45
TTM EPS
$15.32
Earnings yield
4.8%
P/E (TTM)
20.7

Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3

F3 · Earnings quality
fragile
Bottom 30% cash conversion in consumer discretionary cohort
Why this rank
TTM NI ($M)
14,156
TTM CFO ($M)
16,325
CFO/NI
1.15
L2

Watch

has something changed worth re-reading?
F4 · Management stability
stable
Top 20% activity in consumer discretionary cohort· see deep-dive ↓
capital unfriendlyBottom 30% — net capital-unfriendly direction
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
neutral30 analysts, 61% Buyfor period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions

EPS estimate $4.74 → $4.74 (-0.0% / 30d). 11 raised, 11 cut, 30 covering analysts.

Rating actions

0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 61% of analysts rate Buy.

F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
2

Stated priorities

Insufficient transcript history for this ticker.

3

Guidance track record

Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.

L3

Position context

how violent might the path be while I hold it?
Risk profile · realized
backward-looking
moderateworst 12m loss −25%, typical day ±1.1%
Why this risk level

Recent vol — 30d annualized 31%; 252d 23%.

Drawdown — Max 1y −25%. Bad day move −2%.

Beta to sector ETF (XLY) 0.04 over 1y.

Liquidity — score 100/100.

Sub-scores — vol 61/100, drawdown 50/100, beta 4/100, earnings vol .

Sector regime
headwind-4.8%sector vs S&P 500, 60d

via XLY

Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.

AI cycle regime · market-wide
2-axis classifier
HeatingManiaSquallCrisisEarnings →Mood ↑
HeatingE +0.13 · M +0.71
Single-axisCHASEz +2.97+1.285d

Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.

Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.

3

What changed

The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.

  1. No material changes since the prior snapshot.

No material changes since the prior snapshot.

as of 2026-05-08

4

Management scorecard

How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.

Composite68.8 / 100
Capital allocation72
Earnings discipline66
Margin discipline74
Balance sheet68
Guidance credibility
Post-call reaction51
as of 2026-05-08
4

What management is focused on

Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.

No qualifying priorities for this snapshot. Check back after the next refresh.

5

How this stock is priced

Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.

Compared to peers
37higher = cheaper

Looks more expensive than peers.

Compared to its own history
63higher = cheaper

Around its own typical valuation.

P/E
22.3x
EV/EBITDA
14.7x
FCF yield
3.9%

P/E over the last 5 years

71 monthly points
fullas of 2026-05-08
7

How this compares

A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.

StockCompositeValuationRisk
HD
Home Depot (The)
+14fullmoderate
AMZN
Amazon
+16fullmoderate
TSLA
Tesla, Inc.
+0.4expensiveelevated
CVNA
Carvana
+14high
MCD
McDonald's
+19fairmoderate
8

Risk — how this stock moves

What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.

A typical day
How much price usually moves either way.
1.1%
A bad day (95th %ile)
A rough but not unusual down day.
-2.2%
Worst 12-month loss
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
-25.2%
Earnings-day move
How much price usually moves on earnings day.
moderateas of 2026-05-08
9

What could change this view

Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.

Upside triggers
  • If consumer_discretionary sector trend rises from +0.10 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
  • If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-02-24)+4.0 pts
Downside triggers
  • If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-02-24)-8.0 pts
  • If consumer_discretionary sector trend falls from +0.10 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
  • If growth state reverses from +0.25 (positive) to -0.25 (negative)-4.0 pts
10

Material updates

Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.

  1. 2026-02-242mo agoItem 2.02

    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 24, 2026, The Home Depot, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing the Company’s financial results for the fiscal quarter and the fiscal year ended February 1, 2026. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…

    earnings preannouncementneutralscore 12
  2. 2025-11-185mo agoItem 2.02

    Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 18, 2025, The Home Depot, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release, attached as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference, announcing the Company’s financial results for the fiscal quarter ended November 2, 2025. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, o…

    earnings preannouncementneutralscore 1
11

Score history

The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.

60 snapshots
Data freshness · As of 2026-05-08 · Macro 2026-05-08 · Sector 2026-05-07 · Fundamentals 2026-03-18 · Price 2026-05-07 · Generated 2026-05-08 · Spec 2.3

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.