Home Depot (The) (HD)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryHome Improvement RetailSnapshot 2026-07-07
$345.21-1.55%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $345.21. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $345 HD trades at 24× p/e, in line with its 23× p/e peer median — but our blended $279 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $320–$425. Note: our $279 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($320–$425). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $371 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$320.00 – $425.00 (median $372.00) · 16 analysts · as of 2026-05-20
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $18.05/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $372.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $271.51 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $251.85 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $73.72 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $67.58 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $340.31 | 23.2 | 14.69 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $305.11 | 13.9 | 25.39 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $280.14 | 19.5 | 14.37 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $337.53 | 23.2 | 14.57 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $352.25 | 2.1 | 168.93 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $404.92 | 27.8 | 14.57 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $67.02 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $333.29 | 22.9 | 14.57 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $338.21 | 23.2 | 14.60 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $411.62 | 23.2 | 17.77 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $305.65 | 19.5 | 15.68 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $389.70 | 23.2 | 16.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $388.29 | 2.1 | 186.21 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $467.50 | 27.8 | 16.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $384.80 | 22.9 | 16.82 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $467.28 | 23.2 | 20.17 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $323.94 | 19.5 | 16.62 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $413.43 | 23.2 | 17.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $411.93 | 2.1 | 197.55 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $495.97 | 27.8 | 17.85 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $408.24 | 22.9 | 17.85 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.