HEICO CORP NEW (HEI)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$325.48-0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HEI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HEI — debt issuance
Dated 2026-07-16
Entry into Material Definitive Agreement. On July 13, 2026, HEICO Corporation (“HEICO” or the “Company”) executed an Underwriting Agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with BofA Securities, Inc., PNC Capital Markets LLC, Truist Securities, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, as the representatives of the several underwriters listed in Schedule 1 therein, with regard to the issuance and sale by the Company of $550,000,000 principal amount of the Company’s 4.950% Senior Notes due 2031 (the…
Why it matters: Changes in debt ratios will show HEICO's financial health. They will show how well HEICO can handle new debt.
Watch forTotal debt to net income ratio stays below 3.5x after the debt issuance.
Also watch forTotal debt to net income ratio rises above 3.5x after the debt issuance.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow supports HEICO's ability to fund acquisitions and growth. It reflects operational health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations increases over 40% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations grows less than 20% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: New acquisitions may boost growth. They can also show that management's plan works.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of one or more acquisitions in Q4.
Worry ifNo acquisitions announced in Q4.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth is key to HEICO's overall performance and future plans. It shows if management's focus is working.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales growth exceeds 15% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth falls below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$114 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $279 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,711 loss on $10,000 · 27.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower net income growth may show problems in making money. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifNet income growth in Q3 drops below 30%.
Less concerning ifNet income growth in Q3 remains at or above 30%.
Why it matters: A higher ratio may mean more debt and possible financial trouble.
Worry ifDebt to EBITDA ratio exceeds 1.80x in upcoming reports.
Less concerning ifDebt to EBITDA ratio remains at or below 1.74x.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it signals a positive shift in the industrials sector. This could benefit HEICO's performance.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 7%.
Worry if3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector remains below 5%.
Why it matters: New debt may affect cash flow and future investments. Monitoring is crucial.
Watch forDebt issuance leads to improved cash flow and funding for growth projects.
Also watch forDebt issuance results in higher interest expenses and cash flow decline.
Why it matters: A slowdown in net sales growth could signal weakening demand or challenges in the market.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth meets or exceeds 20% year over year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in organic sales growth may show weak demand or more competition.
Worry ifQ4 organic net sales growth reported below 14%.
Less concerning ifQ4 organic net sales growth reported above 14%.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow may mean problems in operations or less profit.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $345 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations was above $345 million.
Why it matters: New acquisitions may help future growth and match management's plans.
Supportive ifThere was an announcement of an acquisition that fits strategic goals.
Worry ifNo acquisition announcements made in the next quarter.
Why it matters: An increase in this ratio may show higher financial risk and less flexibility.
Worry ifTotal debt to net income ratio reported above 3.14x.
Less concerning ifTotal debt to net income ratio reported at or below 3.00x.