Robinhood Markets (HOOD)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$122.11-2.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HOOD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 96.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 24.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HOOD — CFO transition
Dated 2026-06-26
Principal Accounting Officer — Dara Bazzano: Dara Bazzano was appointed as the Principal Accounting Officer, with Shiv Verma continuing to serve as CFO and principal financial officer.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Robinhood is still having financial problems.
Worry ifEarnings results show a revenue decline greater than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifEarnings results show revenue growth or a decline less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: The offering could affect share price and capital structure. Watch for market reactions.
Watch forThe market reacts well to the offering. Share price stabilizes or goes up.
Also watch forMarket reacts negatively, causing a drop in share price.
Why it matters: Buying back shares can help stock prices and show management believes in the company.
Supportive ifRobinhood buys back at least $300 million in shares in the next year.
Worry ifIf there are no big share buybacks, it may show worries about cash flow.
Why it matters: A good investment in the Trump Accounts UI could improve customer experience and growth.
Watch forManagement says they are making good progress on the Trump Accounts user interface.
Also watch forManagement says there are delays in the Trump Accounts UI development.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$307 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $747 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,726 loss on $10,000 · 57.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: How well Robinhood controls costs will affect its profits and growth.
Watch forManagement says operating costs are down by at least 15%.
Also watch forManagement says operating costs have gone up or stayed the same.
Why it matters: This choice may hurt Robinhood's ability to grow and attract new users.
Worry ifManagement says product speed and new ideas improved after cuts.
Less concerning ifProduct speed slows down, leading to fewer new features or services.
Why it matters: More platform assets show that customers trust the service. This shows growth.
Supportive ifTotal platform assets increase to over $320 billion.
Worry ifTotal platform assets fall below $307 billion.
Why it matters: Strong net deposits show that customers are engaged. This helps Robinhood grow.
Supportive ifNet deposits in April are about $5 billion so far this month.
Worry ifNet deposits fall below $4 billion month-to-date in April.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show management's trust in the company's value and plans.
Supportive ifManagement is buying back shares faster than before.
Worry ifShare buybacks slow down or stop. This shows possible worries about spending.
Why it matters: High operating costs can show issues with managing expenses. This can lower profits.
Worry ifTotal operating costs for Q3 are more than $800 million.
Less concerning ifTotal operating costs for Q3 are still below $800 million.
Why it matters: Reaching this milestone would show strong growth in an important revenue area.
Supportive ifRobinhood Gold subscribers reach or exceed 5 million.
Worry ifRobinhood Gold subscribers are still under 4.8 million.
Why it matters: More trading means more customer interest. It also shows growth.
Supportive ifApril trading volumes for equity and options are on track to be the highest of the year.
Worry ifQ2 trading volumes are lower than April's levels. This shows weaker customer interest.
Why it matters: Higher expenses may mean trouble in managing costs. This affects profits.
Worry ifOperating costs are above $2.825 billion for 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating costs are below $2.7 billion for 2026.
Why it matters: Shifts in order routing can affect revenue from trading activities.
Watch forNon-directed orders now make up more than 50% of all orders.
Also watch forNon-directed orders now make up less than 40% of all orders.
Why it matters: A slowdown in net deposits growth may mean fewer customers and less market share.
Worry ifNet deposits growth rate for Q3 falls below 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet deposits growth rate for Q3 remains above 20% year over year.
Why it matters: Slower growth may show challenges in expanding globally.
Worry ifInternational funded customers grow less than 50% each year.
Less concerning ifInternational paying customers grow at or above 50% each year.
Why it matters: Robinhood needs transaction-based revenue growth to stay healthy. A slowdown may mean fewer users.
Worry ifTransaction-based revenue growth for Q3 is under 30% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifTransaction-based revenue growth for Q3 is over 30% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This would support Robinhood's plan to grow its customer base and products.
Supportive ifTrump Accounts reach over 10 million sign-ups within the next quarter.
Worry ifTrump Accounts fail to reach 7 million sign-ups in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More net deposits show strong customer interest and growth in platform assets.
Supportive ifNet deposits reported above $25 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet deposits reported below $22 billion in Q3 2026.