HealthEquity (HQY)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$96.07-2.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
HealthEquity grows revenue steadily, targeting about $1.41 billion in 2027. Profit margins stay strong with adjusted EBITDA near $630 million. EPS is set to rise to about $2.90 per share in 2027. The company has beaten earnings recently and raised its outlook.
Growth could slow below analyst expectations. Profit margins might compress if costs rise. EPS targets may not be met if revenue growth falters.
The stock trades about 42% below our fair value near $165. Analysts expect about 9% revenue growth. Our view is more optimistic than the Street's price targets near $108.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $600M in FY 2027
Target Adjusted EBITDA of $625 million to $633 million for fiscal 2027, reflecting margin expansion and operating leverage.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue and earnings growth. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent strong financial performance and management's clear priorities for the future.
The market appears to have a neutral valuation stance on HQY, with expectations that align closely with its current performance. There is a low expectations gap, suggesting that the stock is priced in a justified manner compared to its peers.
Management is on track to achieve its revenue and EBITDA goals for fiscal year 2027, with recent results showing strong year-over-year growth. However, there is a moderate risk due to potential economic headwinds that could impact the healthcare sector.
The long-term thesis hinges on maintaining guidance and performance consistency, particularly in light of potential sector challenges. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers could provide early signals for HQY's trajectory.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports the positive outlook. Revenue guidance for FY 2027 is set to increase to $1.41B-$1.42B. This aligns with management's objectives and reinforces confidence in future performance.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised from $618M-$628M in 2026-Q1 to $625M-$633M in 2026-Q2 and $628M-$636M in 2026-Q3. Adjusted EBITDA increased 11% year over year to $167.0M in 2026-Q3 from prior year quarter. The trajectory shows delivering margin expansion and operating leverage.
“Management expects Adjusted EBITDA of $628 million to $636 million for fiscal 2027.”
“Management expects Adjusted EBITDA of $625 million to $633 million for fiscal 2027.”
“Management expects Adjusted EBITDA of $618 million to $628 million for fiscal 2027.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $2.70 in FY 2027
Raise fiscal 2027 diluted EPS guidance to $2.88 to $2.95 per share, reflecting improved profitability and earnings growth.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. EPS guidance was raised from $2.78-$2.85 in 2026-Q1 to $2.88-$2.95 in 2026-Q2 and $2.88-$2.96 in 2026-Q3. Diluted EPS grew from $0.68 in 2025-Q3 to $0.78 in 2026-Q3, showing delivering earnings growth consistent with guidance.
“Net income per diluted share guidance raised to $2.88 to $2.96 for fiscal 2027.”
“Net income per diluted share expected between $2.88 and $2.95 for fiscal 2027.”
“Net income per diluted share guidance of $2.78 to $2.85 for fiscal 2027.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1.3B in FY 2027
Raise fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $1.41 billion to $1.42 billion reflecting growth in HSA accounts and assets.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised fiscal 2027 revenue guidance from $1.405B-$1.415B in 2026-Q1 to $1.410B-$1.420B in 2026-Q2 and $1.411B-$1.421B in 2026-Q3. Revenue grew 8% year over year to $350.7M in 2026-Q3 from $325.8M in 2025-Q3. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth aligned with guidance.
“Management is raising guidance and now expects revenues of $1.411 billion to $1.421 billion.”
“For fiscal year ending January 31, 2027, management expects revenues of $1.410 billion to $1.420 billion.”
“Management expects revenues of $1.405 billion to $1.415 billion for fiscal 2027.”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, HQY's solid fundamentals and management execution will be key to its performance. Not investment advice.