HealthEquity (HQY)

NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05

$103.46-4.94%

Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change

HealthEquity (HQY) Outlook: What's Priced In | QuarterlyIQ

Investment OutlookAs of Nov 5, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge HealthEquity’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.50 → 5.52 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HQY yet.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations

Management figures unavailable.

Current consensus figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $625M-$633M for FY 2027	Profit margins stay strong with adjusted EBITDA near $630 million.	Intact	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $600M in FY 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Management expects Adjusted EBITDA of $628 million to $636 million.” ““Adjusted EBITDA increased 23% in the fourth quarter with Adjusted EBITDA margin expanding more than 500 basis points to 40%, reflecting meaningful operating leverage.” Operating income was $98.690 million in 2027-Q2.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$5.52

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve Adjusted EBITDA of $625M-$633M for FY 2027Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Increase EPS to $2.88-$2.95 for FY 2027Diluted EPS: $0.78 per share
Increase revenue to $1.41B-$1.42B for FY 2027Revenue: $350.732M

Next proof point

Dec 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-30.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

HealthEquity outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 31, 2026

What kind of bet this is

HQY is a growth-oriented business with robust earnings quality and a supportive sector backdrop. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the overall signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.

What's priced into HealthEquity

Valuation is neutral and broadly aligned with peers, with no clear expectations gap in either direction. The priced-in assessment is justified, and the evidence shows low valuation fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s fiscal 2027 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and diluted EPS goals are on track, following repeated guidance increases and recent earnings beats. The main caution is that a guidance reversal could damage credibility, while weaker employment data could increase cyclical pressure.

What HealthEquity hinges on

The multi-year thesis depends on management delivering its fiscal 2027 goals without reversing its raised guidance. Near term, weaker jobs data is a risk, while continued strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop.

Bottom line

The 1 to 3 year view remains intact, with strong execution balanced by moderate risk and valuation that appears aligned with peers. Not investment advice.

Development preview · refreshed Nov 6, 2026Open Living FV detail

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-25	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-26	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-27	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-28	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-29	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-30	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-07-31	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-08-01	$5.45	$1,520,401,798	10 / 11
2026-08-02	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-03	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-04	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-05	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-06	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-07	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-08	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-09	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-10	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-12	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-13	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-14	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-15	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-16	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-17	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-18	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-19	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-20	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-21	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-22	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-23	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-24	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-25	$5.45	$1,520,392,658	10 / 11
2026-08-26	$5.45	$1,520,352,808	10 / 11
2026-08-27	$5.45	$1,520,352,808	10 / 11
2026-08-28	$5.47	$1,524,286,677	10 / 11
2026-08-29	$5.49	$1,524,584,533	9 / 10
2026-08-30	$5.49	$1,525,432,533	9 / 10
2026-08-31	$5.49	$1,525,432,533	9 / 10
2026-09-01	$5.49	$1,525,432,533	10 / 10
2026-09-02	$5.49	$1,525,432,533	10 / 11
2026-09-03	$5.49	$1,525,432,533	10 / 11
2026-09-04	$5.49	$1,526,203,176	10 / 11
2026-09-05	$5.49	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-06	$5.49	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-07	$5.49	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-08	$5.49	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-09	$5.49	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-10	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-11	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-12	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-13	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-14	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-15	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-16	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-17	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-18	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-19	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-20	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-21	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-22	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-23	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-24	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-25	$5.50	$1,525,554,740	10 / 11
2026-09-26	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-09-27	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-09-28	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-09-29	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-09-30	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-01	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-02	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-03	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-04	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-05	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-06	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-07	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-08	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-16	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-17	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-18	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-19	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-20	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-21	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-22	$5.50	$1,525,528,740	10 / 11
2026-10-23	$5.50	$1,525,510,955	10 / 11
2026-10-24	$5.50	$1,525,510,955	10 / 11
2026-10-25	$5.50	$1,525,510,955	10 / 11
2026-10-26	$5.50	$1,525,510,955	10 / 11
2026-10-27	$5.52	$1,524,618,098	10 / 11
2026-10-28	$5.52	$1,524,618,098	10 / 11
2026-10-29	$5.52	$1,524,618,098	10 / 11
2026-10-30	$5.52	$1,524,618,098	10 / 11
2026-10-31	$5.52	$1,524,618,098	10 / 11
2026-11-01	$5.52	$1,524,618,098	10 / 11
2026-11-02	$5.52	$1,524,618,098	10 / 11
2026-11-03	$5.52	$1,524,618,098	10 / 11
2026-11-04	$5.52	$1,524,618,098	10 / 11
2026-11-05	$5.52	$1,524,618,098	10 / 11

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Sell*
2026-06-01	15	1
2026-07-01	15	1
2026-08-01	15	0
2026-09-01	15	0
2026-10-01	15	0
2026-11-01	15	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 15 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded

What could strengthen or challenge HealthEquity’s outlook?

Price, analyst earnings & P/E reference

What the Thesis Depends On

Incoming Evidence

Expectations trend

Outlook in Brief

What's improving

Still unresolved / key risks

Next proof point

Historical risk context

HealthEquity outlook in detail

What kind of bet this is

What's priced into HealthEquity

What the fundamentals likely do

What HealthEquity hinges on

Bottom line

Analyst view

Price-target changes

Bottom line