HealthEquity (HQY)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$96.07-2.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HQY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Review the full earnings evidenceWhy it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue shows HealthEquity is on track for its FY 2027 target.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $354.6 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $354.6 million.
Why it matters: This metric shows profit and growth. It confirms that management is positive about the future.
Supportive ifNet income per diluted share for Q2 is within the $2.88-$2.95 range.
Worry ifNet income per diluted share for Q2 is below $2.88.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance shows HealthEquity is growing and doing well.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 revenue lands within the range of $1.411 billion to $1.421 billion.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $1.411 billion for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Better performance in the sector could help HealthEquity grow more.
Supportive ifSector performance improves to better than -1% over the next 60 days.
Worry ifSector performance worsens beyond -2% over the next 60 days.
Why it matters: This shows how well HealthEquity operates. It helps meet its FY 2027 EBITDA goal.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was at or above $164.5 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was less than $164.5 million.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this EPS shows HealthEquity is on track for FY 2027 goals.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS reported at or above $0.82.
Worry ifQ2 EPS reported below $0.82.
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows strong growth and management's effectiveness. It reflects ongoing demand for HSAs.
Supportive ifRevenue reported for Q1 FY 2027 exceeds $354.6 million, on track for the annual target.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $1.41 billion for FY 2027, indicating weaker growth.
Why it matters: HSA asset growth shows the company can attract and keep customers.
Supportive ifTotal HSA Assets grow at least 14% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifHSA Assets grow less than 14% year over year in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Net income per share is a key measure of profitability. A drop indicates financial stress.
Worry ifNet income per diluted share reported at or above $0.82.
Less concerning ifNet income per diluted share falls below $0.82.
Why it matters: News on the share buyback plan shows management trusts the company's worth.
Watch forThere was an announcement of share repurchases under the new $1 billion program.
Also watch forNo news or buybacks were reported under the new plan.
Why it matters: Hitting or surpassing this growth shows strong demand for HealthEquity. It backs management's plans.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 8% or more compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 8%.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows HealthEquity can control costs and grow margins. It shows efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reported in the range of $628M to $636M.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $628M.
Why it matters: Stable EPS guidance shows ongoing profits and investor trust. It shows the company's financial strength.
Supportive ifEPS guidance remains within the range of $2.88 to $2.96.
Worry ifEPS guidance is lowered below $2.88.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show management believes in the company. This can help keep share prices steady.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $100 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare buybacks fall well below $100 million.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $306 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,057 loss on $10,000 · 30.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.