Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
Henry Schein (HSIC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$85.31-3.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.00 → 6.00 EPS · FY ending Dec 27, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HSIC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain mid-single digit EBITDA growth in 2026 | Profit rises with mid-single digit EBITDA growth. | Under Pressure | EBITDA growth falls below 4% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company’s FY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance includes the net benefit from tariff refunds recognized in the third quarter, targeted and limited growth-investments in the fourth quarter which will contribute to growth in 2027, and improved underlying business performance.” ““I am committed to the Company’s goal of achieving greater than $200 million of annual operating income improvement within the next few years, with a $125 million run-rate by the end of 2026.” Operating income was $193.000 million in 2026-Q3. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-27 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a healthcare distribution business with a currently favorable, execution-led thesis, rather than a turnaround story. Its recent results are strong, but earnings quality is fragile and management execution has been volatile, so the multi-year view still depends on steady delivery.
The valuation evidence is mixed: HSIC is described as cheap versus peers, while its premium versus peers is also elevated. The expectations gap is negative, and the snapshot says current pricing reflects weak execution quality rather than a broader combination of expensive valuation and turbulence.
Near-term results show momentum: sales grew 6.7% year over year in 2026 Q2, adjusted EBITDA grew 12.5%, and management raised 2026 sales growth and EPS guidance. The near-term miss risk is assessed as low, but the company’s history of a deep miss and recent peer misses remain reasons to watch execution; the CFO transition adds uncertainty.
The multi-year thesis hinges on management sustaining its 2026 growth and EBITDA priorities without reversing its recent guidance increase. A weakening jobs trend could raise recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, supported by strong recent performance and guidance increases, but fragile earnings quality and management volatility limit confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Reaffirm EPS guidance for 2026 at $5.23 to $5.37 | EPS is on track for $5.3 in 2026. | Under Pressure | EPS guidance falls below $5.23 for FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company’s FY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance includes the net benefit from tariff refunds recognized in the third quarter, targeted and limited growth-investments in the fourth quarter which will contribute to growth in 2027, and improved underlying business performance.” ““I am committed to the Company’s goal of achieving greater than $200 million of annual operating income improvement within the next few years, with a $125 million run-rate by the end of 2026.” Diluted EPS was $1.06 in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve 3% to 5% sales growth in 2026 | A primary condition in Henry Schein's published investment case. The stated target is 3% to 5% YoY. | Under Pressure | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 3.95% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 3% to 5% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20263.953279 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The Company’s FY2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS guidance includes the net benefit from tariff refunds recognized in the third quarter, targeted and limited growth-investments in the fourth quarter which will contribute to growth in 2027, and improved underlying business performance.” ““I am committed to the Company’s goal of achieving greater than $200 million of annual operating income improvement within the next few years, with a $125 million run-rate by the end of 2026.” Revenue was $3.471 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.91 → $6.00 · observed estimates
$14.26B → $14.37B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.91 | $14,258,191,675 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.91 | $14,258,191,675 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.91 | $14,257,685,425 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.91 | $14,257,685,425 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.91 | $14,257,685,344 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.91 | $14,257,685,344 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.91 | $14,257,685,344 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.90 | $14,253,585,213 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.90 | $14,253,585,213 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.90 | $14,253,585,213 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.90 | $14,253,585,213 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.91 | $14,253,585,213 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.91 | $14,253,585,213 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.91 | $14,253,585,213 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.00 | $14,424,696,383 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.01 | $14,430,575,145 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.01 | $14,430,575,145 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.01 | $14,430,575,145 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.01 | $14,430,575,145 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.01 | $14,430,575,145 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.01 | $14,430,575,145 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.01 | $14,430,574,931 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.00 | $14,425,156,979 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.00 | $14,425,156,979 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.00 | $14,425,156,979 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.00 | $14,425,156,979 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.00 | $14,425,156,979 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.00 | $14,425,156,979 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.00 | $14,425,156,979 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.00 | $14,425,128,408 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.00 | $14,425,128,408 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.00 | $14,424,494,488 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.00 | $14,424,494,717 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.00 | $14,424,494,717 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.00 | $14,424,494,717 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.00 | $14,424,494,717 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.99 | $14,428,224,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.99 | $14,428,224,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.99 | $14,427,904,222 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.99 | $14,419,463,792 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.99 | $14,419,463,792 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.99 | $14,419,463,792 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.99 | $14,419,463,792 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.99 | $14,419,463,792 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.99 | $14,419,463,792 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.99 | $14,419,463,792 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.00 | $14,371,182,227 | 9 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.