Henry Schein (HSIC)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$89.81-1.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HSIC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HSIC — COO transition
Dated 2026-07-30
Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer / Executive Vice President and Chief Strategic Officer — Michael S. Ettinger, Mark E. Mlotek: Michael S. Ettinger and Mark E. Mlotek are transitioning out of their current roles into senior advisory roles.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show growth trends and how management performs against guidance.
Watch forEarnings results show revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings results show revenue growth below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: KKR's work may improve efficiency and growth. This could help shareholders.
Supportive ifLook for signs of better operations or initiatives from KKR's work.
Worry ifThere is no clear progress in operations after KKR got involved.
Why it matters: Earnings below $5.29 would challenge management's guidance. This could hurt stock performance.
Worry ifNon-GAAP diluted EPS for Q3 2026 reported below $5.29.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP diluted EPS for Q3 2026 meets or exceeds $5.29.
Why it matters: Keeping EBITDA growth strong is important. If it drops below 5%, there may be problems.
Worry ifEBITDA growth is below 5%.
Less concerning ifEBITDA growth reported at 5% or higher.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $254 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,723 loss on $10,000 · 17.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If non-GAAP diluted EPS is below $1.27, it shows weaker earnings than expected.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, non-GAAP diluted EPS was below $1.27.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 non-GAAP diluted EPS reported at or above $1.27.
Why it matters: Updates on the partnership may show new growth chances and better operations.
Supportive ifHenry Schein shares specific actions or results from the partnership with KKR.
Worry ifNo news or progress on the partnership with KKR after several months.
Why it matters: KKR's investment signals strong confidence in Henry Schein's growth strategy. It may lead to new opportunities.
Supportive ifKKR completes its additional $250 million investment in Henry Schein by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifThe investment does not close by the end of Q2 2026 due to regulatory or other issues.
Why it matters: If KKR increases its stake, it would signal strong confidence in Henry Schein's future. This could attract more investors.
Supportive ifA press release or SEC filing confirming KKR's purchase of additional shares up to 14.9% stake.
Worry ifNo announcement or indication of KKR increasing its stake within the next few months.
Why it matters: Keeping EPS guidance shows trust in steady earnings and growth.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms non-GAAP EPS guidance of $5.23 to $5.37 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement cuts its non-GAAP EPS guidance.
Why it matters: If guidance is confirmed, it shows management believes in growth. This affects future views.
Supportive ifManagement confirms 2025 non-GAAP EPS growth of low to mid-single digits.
Worry ifManagement cuts 2025 non-GAAP EPS growth guidance to below 5 percent.
Why it matters: Updates on the KKR partnership can show chances for growth and better operations.
Supportive ifPublic announcements will share details about the KKR partnership's plans or results.
Worry ifNo important updates or plans have been announced about the KKR partnership.
Why it matters: If sector growth drops, it could impact Henry Schein's performance. It’s a sign of broader issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows management can keep sales growing. It also backs the higher guidance for 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 sales growth of 4.5% or higher compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth falls below 4.5% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Keeping this growth shows good cost management and operations. This is important for long-term value.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth of at least 5% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth falls below 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows progress on value creation. This is key for future profits.
Supportive ifOperating income should improve by $200 million or more by the end of 2026.
Worry ifOperating income will improve by less than $200 million by the end of 2026.