Hershey Company (The) (HSY)
NYSEConsumer StaplesConfectionersSnapshot 2026-07-07
$175.95-0.88%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Hershey grows sales about 10% yearly, driven by new products and pricing. Profit margins stay stable with effective tax rates near 26.6%. Capital spending is steady between $425 million and $475 million. The company beats earnings estimates and maintains solid cash flow.
Sales growth could slow below 3%, hurting earnings. Rising costs or tax rate changes may squeeze profit margins. Recent leadership changes and market selloff raise execution risks.
The price is about 35% above our fair value near $130, reflecting optimistic growth. Analysts expect 3.4% revenue growth, but we see risks to sustaining current strong sales gains.
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $475M or falls below $425M in FY26
Maintain capital expenditures within the range of $425 million to $475 million for 2026.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently guided capital expenditures to be between $425 million and $475 million for 2026. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy, with no significant deviations reported.
“The Company expects capital expenditures in the range of approximately $425 million to $475 million.”
“Capital expenditures of approximately $425 million to $450 million.”
“Capital expenditures of approximately $425 million to $450 million.”
Breaks if: effective tax rate falls outside 25%-27% in FY26
Ensure the effective tax rate remains within the range of 25% to 27% for 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The reported effective tax rate was 26.6% in 2026-Q1, aligning with the company's guidance of maintaining the rate between 25% and 27%. The trajectory is consistent with management's stated regulatory focus.
“The Company expects a reported and adjusted effective tax rate in the range of approximately 25% to 27%.”
“The Company expects a reported and adjusted effective tax rate in the range of approximately 25% to 27%.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26
Focus on driving net sales growth through brand investment, innovation, and strategic pricing.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Consolidated net sales increased 10.6% to $3,104.2 million in 2026-Q1, driven by brand investment and strategic pricing. The trajectory is delivering on the stated growth focus.
“CEO: 'We are laser-focused on fueling core growth and making bold moves in brand investment, innovation, R&D, technology, and talent.'”
“CEO: 'We are reaffirming our net sales growth outlook for the year.'”
“CEO: 'We are raising our full year outlook for net sales.'”
“CEO: 'We are reiterating our net sales growth outlook for the year.'”