Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Howmet Aerospace (HWM)
NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$200.90-5.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.52 → 6.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 14 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 14 to 14; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for HWM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete and integrate Consolidated Aerospace acquisition | The acquisition of Consolidated Aerospace adds new products and sales. | Intact | acquisition integration delays or revenue contribution miss in 2026 | Integration completed Apr 2026 vs End 2026 target HWM completed Consolidated Aerospace acquisition in April 2026 and raised 2026 guidance after Q3 beat. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
HWM is a growth-oriented aerospace and industrial business, with recent financial performance among the stronger results in its industry. The long-term thesis is intact, though its momentum weakened after the latest earnings report and management execution remains mixed.
HWM is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the evidence suggests expectations are somewhat ahead of what the fundamentals support. That premium is described as justified rather than highly fragile, but the valuation leaves less room for execution setbacks.
Near term, the latest earnings miss and repeated recent misses temper the picture, even as revenue and free cash flow grew strongly year over year. Management has delivered growth and cash generation, but investment plans and CAM integration remain execution points to watch; the broader sector backdrop is a headwind.
Over the next few quarters, a guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility, while sustained delivery would support the long-term thesis. Sector signals also matter: continued strong results and guidance from SPCX, GE, and RTX could support industrial momentum, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the 1-to-3-year view, HWM retains a growth and cash-generation case, but the latest miss, mixed execution, sector headwind, and expensive valuation make consistent delivery central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Free cash flow is strong at $1.75 billion. |
| Intact |
| free cash flow falls below $1.5 billion in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain gross margin near 30.3% in 2026 | A supporting condition in Howmet Aerospace's published investment case. The stated target is ~30.3%. | Intact | gross margin falls below 28% in FY26 | Gross margin: 37.11% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~30.3%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202637.106918 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow revenue about 10% in 2026 | A primary condition in Howmet Aerospace's published investment case. The stated target is >=10% YoY growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 29.39% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=10% YoY growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202629.392054 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.06 → $6.65 · observed estimates
$11.04B → $11.72B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.06 | $11,038,125,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.05 | $11,036,549,730 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.06 | $11,038,125,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.05 | $11,036,549,730 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.06 | $11,038,125,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.05 | $11,037,844,460 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.06 | $11,039,365,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.06 | $11,039,365,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.06 | $11,039,365,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.06 | $11,039,365,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.06 | $11,039,365,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.05 | $11,037,844,460 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.06 | $11,039,365,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.05 | $11,037,844,460 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-07 | $6.06 | $11,039,815,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.06 | $11,039,815,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.15 | $11,173,544,100 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.15 | $11,173,544,100 | 18 / 17 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.06 | $11,039,815,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.06 | $11,039,815,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.06 | $11,039,815,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.06 | $11,039,815,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.06 | $11,039,815,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.06 | $11,039,815,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.06 | $11,039,815,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.06 | $11,039,815,519 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.41 | $11,403,579,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.42 | $11,426,929,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.42 | $11,426,929,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.42 | $11,426,929,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.42 | $11,426,929,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.43 | $11,435,129,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.43 | $11,435,129,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.43 | $11,435,129,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.43 | $11,435,129,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.46 | $11,435,129,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.46 | $11,435,129,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.46 | $11,435,129,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.46 | $11,435,129,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.46 | $11,435,129,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.46 | $11,435,129,402 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.51 | $11,466,943,269 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.51 | $11,466,943,269 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.51 | $11,466,943,269 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.51 | $11,466,943,269 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.51 | $11,466,943,269 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.51 | $11,466,943,269 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.51 | $11,466,943,271 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.51 | $11,466,943,271 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.50 | $11,466,943,271 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.50 | $11,466,943,271 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.50 | $11,466,943,271 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.50 | $11,466,943,271 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.51 | $11,492,760,258 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.52 | $11,494,187,315 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.52 | $11,496,021,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.52 | $11,496,021,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.52 | $11,496,021,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.52 | $11,496,021,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.52 | $11,496,021,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.52 | $11,496,021,985 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.52 | $11,496,831,509 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.52 | $11,494,257,537 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.52 | $11,495,211,879 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.51 | $11,488,830,926 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.51 | $11,488,830,926 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.54 | $11,565,354,736 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.54 | $11,565,354,736 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.55 | $11,573,743,831 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.51 | $11,575,298,355 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.51 | $11,575,298,355 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.51 | $11,578,488,831 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.51 | $11,578,488,831 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.51 | $11,578,504,117 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.53 | $11,578,438,144 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.61 | $11,669,957,698 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.61 | $11,669,957,698 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.61 | $11,677,144,152 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.64 | $11,718,973,861 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.65 | $11,718,973,862 | 14 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 20 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.