Howmet Aerospace (HWM)
NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$200.90-5.93%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HWM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 7.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
HWM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-28
Other Events Segment Reorganization Howmet Aerospace Inc. (the “Company” or "Howmet Aerospace") is filing this Current Report on Form 8-K to recast historical segment information as set forth in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on February 12, 2026 (“Original Report”). As previously disclosed and as reflected in the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended M…
Why it matters: Management raised its 2026 revenue guide to $10.30 billion. A miss would test the strong growth story.
Watch forFull-year 2026 revenue is at least $10.30 billion, the latest baseline guide.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 revenue is below $10.29 billion, the low end of the guide.
Why it matters: Gas turbine sales grew 45% in Q3, and management said customers seek more output. A slowdown would challenge that growth view.
Worry ifGas turbine revenue growth falls below 20% year over year in a reported quarter.
Less concerning ifGas turbine revenue grows at least 40% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: Howmet plans high capital spending beyond 2027. Strong cash flow can fund growth while supporting its capital return plan.
Watch forFull-year 2026 free cash flow reaches at least $2.0 billion after capital spending.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 free cash flow falls below $1.95 billion, the low end of the guide.
Why it matters: The score fell from 58.4 to 9.2 after fresh earnings, even as sales grew. Another drop would add to the mixed signals.
Worry ifThe next reported company momentum score stays below 10.
Less concerning ifThe next reported company momentum score rises above 58.4, its prior score.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $331 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,647 loss on $10,000 · 36.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.