Howmet Aerospace (HWM)
NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$259.27-0.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HWM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 39.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers
HWM — credit agreement
Dated 2026-05-28
Other Events Segment Reorganization Howmet Aerospace Inc. (the “Company” or "Howmet Aerospace") is filing this Current Report on Form 8-K to recast historical segment information as set forth in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) on February 12, 2026 (“Original Report”). As previously disclosed and as reflected in the Company’s Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarterly period ended M…
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights on revenue growth, margins, and cash flow performance.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 10% and strong cash flow generation.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 10% and weak cash flow performance.
Why it matters: Earnings per share guidance is important for understanding profits. It can impact stock performance.
Supportive ifManagement raises EPS guidance for FY 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS guidance for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Good integration will improve Howmet's products and market position. It shows management can grow.
Supportive ifFastening Systems revenue grows by at least 30% in Q3, reflecting CAM's contributions.
Worry ifFastening Systems revenue growth is below 20% in Q3.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this EPS target shows good earnings growth and efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported at or above $1.23 for Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $1.22 for Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $302 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,630 loss on $10,000 · 16.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase would show good financial health and a focus on shareholder value.
Supportive ifThe quarterly dividend is raised above $0.12 per share.
Worry ifThe quarterly dividend remains at $0.12 or is cut.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with capital use and returns to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $1.7 billion for FY 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $1.7 billion for FY 2026.
Why it matters: Integrating CAM well is important for growth in Fastening Systems.
Supportive ifManagement says CAM integration is on track.
Worry ifThere are delays or problems in integration. This shows challenges in execution.
Why it matters: Management aims for about 10% revenue growth. This shows strong market demand.
Supportive ifManagement confirms revenue growth guidance at or above 10% during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue growth guidance to below 10% during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: This confirms Howmet's ability to sustain growth across its key markets. A strong growth rate supports investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding the guidance shows strong demand and growth in key markets. It confirms management's growth strategy.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue reported at or above $2,575 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue reported below $2,575 million.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps with spending and stock buybacks. It shows how well the company runs.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $1,750 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $1,750 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in dividends shows strong earnings growth. It shows management cares about giving value to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement will announce a dividend increase for Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced for Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Integrating CAM well is important for revenue growth in Fastening Systems. It shows how well management can execute.
Supportive ifManagement will give a good update on CAM integration progress in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement will talk about delays or problems with CAM integration in the next earnings call.