Howmet Aerospace (HWM)
NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-07
$275.34-0.92%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading HWM? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track HWM free→NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading HWM? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track HWM free→QuarterlyIQ Insights · HWM
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $275.34. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $275 the market pays 67× p/e — above the 38× p/e peer median but in line with its own 59× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $211 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts target $270–$330. Note: our $211 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($270–$330). Not investment advice.
$270.00 – $330.00 (median $307.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-06-16
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 503% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 17.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.90/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $307.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $134.18 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $133.45 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $35.68 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $188.51 | 38.2 | 4.94 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $158.82 | 25.5 | 6.44 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $121.73 | 34.2 | 3.56 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $157.60 | 38.2 | 4.13 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $71.38 | 3.3 | 21.40 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $155.08 | 37.5 | 4.13 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $244.16 | 59.1 | 4.13 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $167.66 | 38.2 | 4.39 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $405.00 | 38.2 | 10.61 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $185.14 | 34.2 | 5.42 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $239.69 | 38.2 | 6.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $108.99 | 3.3 | 32.67 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $235.86 | 37.5 | 6.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $371.33 | 59.1 | 6.28 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $674.32 | 38.2 | 17.67 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $244.85 | 34.2 | 7.16 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $316.99 | 38.2 | 8.31 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $136.50 | 3.3 | 40.92 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $311.92 | 37.5 | 8.31 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $491.09 | 59.1 | 8.31 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.