Howmet Aerospace (HWM)
NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$259.27-0.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSE MKTIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · HWM
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $259 HWM trades at 57× p/e — 1.9× the 30× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $186 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $290–$370. Note: our $186 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($290–$370). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $324.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $246.39 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $154.42 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $38.21 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$290.00 – $370.00 (median $324.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-09-02
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 464% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 15.1 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.07/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $159.84 |
| 30.3 |
| 5.27 |
| Mgmt |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $179.73 | 27.0 | 7.03 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $118.64 | 30.4 | 3.91 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $146.41 | 27.8 | 5.27 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $74.73 | 3.3 | 22.68 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $223.32 | 42.4 | 5.27 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $26.23 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $147.74 | 30.3 | 4.87 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $360.15 | 30.3 | 11.87 | Mgmt(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $180.44 | 30.4 | 5.94 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $214.51 | 27.8 | 7.72 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $111.46 | 3.3 | 33.83 | guidance | low |
| PEG | 3Y | $327.20 | 42.4 | 7.72 | Analyst | low |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $619.00 | 30.3 | 20.41 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $238.63 | 30.4 | 7.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $260.66 | 27.8 | 9.38 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $135.44 | 3.3 | 41.11 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $397.59 | 42.4 | 9.38 | Analyst | medium |